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29/11/22
19:42
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Originally posted by chuk:
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Not everyone is waiting for funding to be secured. There is plenty of accumulation going on. You can't have selling without the same number of shares being bought. We'll find out in time but my money is that those buying below 10c have got it right and those selling are selling near what will probably turn out to be a very significant low. Markets often do what we don't expect. The DJIA is a classic example. Is this a bear market rally or something else? I had expected a big rally based on the base pattern a few months back but I couldn't see a fundamental justification for it. It happened anyway. TTM has also really surprised me. They failed to deliver on a JORC resource promised to be delivered a few years back. They also failed to have much success with drill results. The sp didn't surprise me when it dropped from 13.5c to 5c as a result of those failings but it then rallied back up to 10.5c very recently without delivering anything to justify a more than 100% gain in two and a half months. That's a jump in the mc from around $70million to over $140mill on a company with no income in the forseeable future and not even a JORC resource, scoping study or FS and definitely no funding certainty! Double MNB's mc, so why do some here think MNB needs to lock in funding before it can rally again? There is strong fundamental justification for a much higher sp for MNB but the price stayed low even while the DJIA rallied. If there is one thing I have gone through with almost every big winning stock that I have ever had, it's that I will often go through big seemingly completely unjustified corrections before the big gains happen. No exception here. People post here that MNB can't go up without news to justify it. Tell that to TTM. The mc is double ours with no project even close to showing viability. MNB doesn't need more news to go higher. There is more than enough news already out there to justify a sp of well over 20c even before funding is locked in. It's all about psychology. If a sp is depressed well below fundamental valuation for whatever reason, some shareholders talk themselves into believing that the low sp is justified. That's a great way to miss out on the best value buys. With regards to the funding, as Bunter just reminded us, we have a cornerstone investor that has offered a debt facility and is clearly interested in supply of our product. The DFS shows compelling economics with very low capex, a very low capex to NPV ratio and high IRR, all using a 15 year average fertiliser price. Funding will happen, the site is secured, long lead items either already on the boat or ready to ship and the project is set for production next year.
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i am a holder of both TTM and MNB and I would have to say I feel my money is safer in TTM but multiples are more likely with MNB. Yes the TTM JORC estimate is still not out but the strategy changed once proven experienced personnel were brought in. TTM price rise could be partly due to results on first holes at Linderos being imminent and we have seen plenty of activity by the majors looking for copper. Anyways I know it's an MNB thread and I do feel that MNB potential is massive and far greater than TTM. The fact that management is yet to prove themselves makes me more nervous with MNB but I feel they have done an excellent job thus far and the potential of the 2 projects is huge. Personally, I see patience being rewarded with both stocks. Time will tell.