Lithium is following iron ore cycle, page-568

Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research
December 2019

Assumption 1: Global auto sales are steadily advancing. It is estimated that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 30% by 2030.

In 2018, global car sales reached 95.06 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and the first decline since 2009. In 2019, China's autos are still under great pressure, and sales have dropped significantly year-on-year.

▼ Global car sales growth has slowed in recent years
However, considering that the global GDP growth rate will still maintain stable growth, we are cautious to predict that global vehicle sales will reach 100 million units in 2030, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year compared with 2018, and an average annual compound growth rate of 0.42%.

In December 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035) (draft for comments)", which mentioned that by 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales will account for 25%. On this basis, we assume that by 2030, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 30%.

Hypothesis 2: It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 30% by 2030, and annual sales will reach 30 million by then.

From an overseas perspective, Volkswagen and BMW have already made great strides in the field of new energy vehicles. Among them, Volkswagen aims to increase the proportion of new energy vehicle sales from about 1% in 2019 to more than 20% by 2025, and it has developed rapidly.At the same time, BMW has also signed a total of 10.3 billion euros in 2021-2031 with Ningde Times and Samsung SDI. Battery supply contract.

Therefore, we expect overseas OEMs to progress rapidly in electric vehicles, and the penetration rate will increase rapidly.

According to the global sales of 100 million vehicles in 2030 and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching 30%, it is estimated that the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 30 million.

▼ Development Plan of Volkswagen Group in 2025


Data source: Volkswagen Group's official website


Volkswagen CEO: We Need To Move Faster On Electric Vehicles Or We Will Follow Nokia’s Fate
January 16th, 2020 by Zachary Shahan

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cleant...c-vehicles-or-we-will-follow-nokias-fate/amp/