Monthly sales of cars decreased year-on-year, and fund managers...

Monthly sales of cars decreased year-on-year, and fund managers pay attention to bottom-hunting opportunities.
2019-10-15 04:02:28

Securities Times
In September, automobile industry data was released, and both automobile sales and new energy vehicle sales showed a continuous year-on-year decline. The sales volume of domestic brand vehicles declined significantly, and the industry concentration increased further.

In this context, fund managers have significant differences in their views on the automotive industry. Some fund managers believe that investment in the automotive industry needs to be cautious, and some industry brands may face a crisis of extinction. Other fund managers believe that the current may be in the bottom of the automobile industry, and the future automotive industry, especially the battery and battery upstream, smart driving, new energy vehicle and other sub-sectors deserve special attention.

Industry dilemma

On the afternoon of October 14, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the September auto industry data report.

According to the report, in September 2019, automobile production and sales were 2.209 million and 2.271 million, respectively, down 6.2% and 5.2% year-on-year. In the first nine months, domestic automobile production and sales were 18.149 million and 18.371 million, respectively, down 11.4% and 10.3% respectively. Domestic automobile production and sales decreased for the first time in 15 months. New energy vehicles also fell for three consecutive months. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 89,000 and 80,000 respectively, down 29.9% and 34.2% respectively. In the first nine months, only Chinese Great Wall Motor (Hong Kong stocks 02333) achieved significant year-on-year growth. The top ten group sales of automobile sales totaled 16.518 million units, down 9.3% year-on-year; the concentration of the top ten companies increased to 89.9. %.

Some fund managers told reporters that the current auto industry is facing a severe test. “The biggest problem now is that the overall sales volume of the car is declining. Both the sales of new energy vehicles and traditional cars are declining, and a large number of automobile factories are offering discounts.” He analyzed that this led to two results, one for new energy. The automobile industry has had a negative impact. Originally, new energy vehicles were affected by the subsidy of new energy subsidies. The price cuts of traditional car companies further squeezed the price space of new energy vehicles. Second, many medium and high-end import or joint venture car companies have discounted promotions. It also caused a large price pressure on domestic brand cars, which also affected the sales of domestic brand cars.

“The auto industry is facing a major brand reshuffle.” The fund manager said that the brand competition pattern of the auto industry is obviously different from that of previous years. The situation that all kinds of auto brands are booming everywhere may be gone forever. Some brand-name cars are facing The risk of being eliminated. He judged that the pattern of the automobile industry in the future will show a trend of concentration towards big brands, and the concentration of industry brands will gradually increase.

"Risk" as well as "Opportunity"

In this context, the above fund managers advise investors to be cautious about investment opportunities in the automotive industry, but there are also fund managers who see “opportunity” in “risk”.

Li Wenbin, fund manager of Wanjia Fund, said that the auto industry is expected to return to health in the fourth quarter of 2019. Li Wenbin said that from the policy perspective, the “National Five” and “National Six” emission standards policies were put forward in advance in the first half of the year, and the central government introduced policies to encourage and stimulate consumption at the end of August. From the perspective of the inventory cycle, the inventory of the automobile industry has been significantly digested thanks to the early arrival of the “National Six”. From these two dimensions, the automotive industry will gradually step out of the bottom in the future, and now the car valuation is undervalued, and the valuation of vehicle and parts companies is lower. Li Wenbin believes that the automotive industry has already ushered in strategic layout opportunities, especially in the three major segments of new energy vehicles, smart driving, and domestic substitution.

The fund manager of Shanghai No. 1 Middle Fund Company told reporters that the optional consumption attribute of the automobile industry is outstanding. When the macroeconomic climate declines, the automobile industry is often the most vulnerable industry. After the financial crisis in the United States in 2008, the automotive industry was significantly affected, and when the overall economics of the macro economy improved, the automotive industry's prosperity will also increase. At present, the entire automobile industry is at a low point of prosperity. In the future, with the recovery of macroeconomic fundamentals, the automobile industry's prosperity will also increase.

"The automotive industry will not always be in a downturn, and next year may be the year of reversal in the automotive industry." He said that he is optimistic about the battery upstream raw materials industry. He believes that with the recovery of the automotive industry in the future, the raw materials industry may be one of the sub-sectors that will clearly benefit.