Polaris storage Reuters : Introduction: From the international point of view, the majority concentrated in the lock-up schedule for 2025 --2040 years, and like Norway, the Netherlands this category dare leave time in 2025, because they are now in the new energy Car ownership has been high, the pressure is relatively small. Taking into account China's large car volume, the overall realization of the transition there is still some difficulty, the starting point to predict China's comprehensive ban on fuel trucks in 2040 years - 2050 years.
China started fuel truck exit schedule study: new energy vehicles usher in the golden period of development, the fuel era will end
September 9, the Ministry of Industry and leaders in public said the fuel truck has started a timetable of the study, further confirmed the new energy vehicles to replace the traditional long-term trend of the car. This has aroused great concern in the industry, the starting point that, with the launch of the fuel truck exit schedule means that the fuel truck in the Chinese market will eventually go to the end, the new energy vehicles will usher in the golden period of development. Global automotive electricization trend
Since 2015, some of the European countries headed by the Netherlands have joined the "International Zero Emissions Vehicle Alliance", promised to make new vehicles all new models by 2050. Subsequently, Norway, France, Germany, Britain and other countries have also announced plans to ban fuel vehicles, lockout schedule is generally set in 2025-2040 this interval.
International ban on fuel truck timetable
Source: Public information, starting point research
Therefore, from the international development trend, the general direction of the global automotive electric has been unstoppable, the end of the traditional fuel vehicle era is only a matter of time.
Source: Bloomberg
From China's new energy automotive industry planning point of view, April 25, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Science and Technology three ministries jointly issued the "long-term development plan for the automotive industry," which clearly proposed to 2020 China's annual output of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million, and by 2025 new energy vehicle sales accounted for the proportion of total sales of more than 20% of the development goals. According to China's manufacturing 2025 planning layout, China's auto production will continue to grow steadily, is expected to reach about 30 million in 2020, 2025 will reach 35 million or so. This means that by 2025, China's new energy vehicles will produce more than 7 million. Starting point to determine the study, the new energy automotive industry growth is huge. How far is China from farewell fuel trucks?
So, the domestic ban on traditional fuel vehicles, the schedule will be close to what time it?
In contrast to the international situation, the chase schedule is mostly concentrated in 2025 - 2040, and like Norway, the Netherlands dare to put this time in 2025, because they are now the new energy vehicles have been high , The pressure is relatively small. Taking into account China's large car volume, the overall realization of the transition there is still some difficulty, the starting point to predict China's comprehensive ban on fuel trucks in 2040 years - 2050 years.
This is because China's geographical area is relatively large, more social consumption level, the overall implementation of new energy vehicles there is an objective difficulty. New energy vehicles to develop the need for charging pile first, and China's current charging infrastructure construction is still lagging behind, the proportion of charging piles and new energy vehicles is still insufficient, and, because the public charging facilities construction sites and consumer charging area dislocation, Charging facilities between the interoperability of low reason, some of the public facilities have been built low utilization rate, so the new energy vehicle charging service there is a big gap.
From the perspective of auto companies, the current production capacity of China's auto brands are as follows:
Source: starting point research based on public information
For 2020, China can achieve the number of new energy vehicles production and sales, Shun Securities forecasts, new energy vehicles in 2020 production and sales of 2 million, the penetration rate is expected to reach 6.67%. 2025 annual sales penetration rate of 20%, production and sales are expected to reach 7 million. If the final ban on fuel trucks in China out of schedule, with reference to the traditional car sales in 2016, the new energy vehicles will be 26 million market size, corresponding to 2016 new energy vehicles about 550,000 production and marketing, market space will grow 47 Times New energy vehicles and their industrial chain usher in a major upgrade
Ministry of Industry and leaders said publicly that the development of fuel vehicles will be timetable, indicating that the Chinese government to develop new energy vehicles firm determination, which will further promote the policy level from the automotive enterprises to the pace of transformation of new energy, new energy automotive industry development Full speed.
As the future of new energy vehicles will form a comprehensive alternative to fuel trucks, then to achieve this goal, it is foreseeable that the future production of new energy vehicles will show an upward trend year by year, which will greatly promote the new energy automotive industry, and its upstream Industry, such as vehicle manufacturers, automotive parts, lithium batteries and its positive, negative, diaphragm, electrolyte four materials, as well as the most upstream mineral resources. As the power battery is the core of new energy instead of fuel, its high technological content, capital investment, resource endowment and other characteristics, will focus on the development of key beneficiaries.
According to the study of China and Thailand Securities, assuming that China to 2050 full ban on traditional fuel vehicles, 100% of the use of new energy vehicles, while the battery capacity of bicycles 50Kwh, battery technology for the NCM811 or NCA, under the assumption of unit consumption, we The results show that: 2050, China's power battery consumption of lithium carbonate will reach 3.72 million tons, consumption of cobalt metal 800,000 tons. Consumption of copper and magnetic materials were up to 4.78 million tons and 530,000 tons. Assuming that the lithium material, other requirements of the magnetic material unchanged, by 2050, lithium carbonate, cobalt, lithium copper foil and magnetic materials consumption will reach 379 million tons, 850,000 tons, 4.81 million tons and 630,000 tons, compared with 2016 Year growth of 40 times, 14 times, 81 times and 5 times. Traditional fuel vehicles and related industries gradually weakened
As the traditional fuel trucks will gradually cut production, its related industries will be adversely affected and become sluggish.
For example, the value of traditional car scrap will be reduced, the automotive finance industry will also be hit by the development of electric vehicles; crude oil industry may be due to the reduction in demand, and production and sales continued to decline, the current passenger demand for global crude oil In about 20%, the future will gradually reduce the proportion. Relevant authoritative data show that if by 2025, the use of electric vehicles widely widespread in 2035, the automotive industry demand for crude oil will be reduced by about 15%.
