AKE 0.00% $9.83 allkem limited

Well that is a difficult question. We need to consider the...

  1. 980 Posts.
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    Well that is a difficult question. We need to consider the following variables:

    1) Price. How long will the price of spod and lithium stay high? If what we believe and what the lithium experts keeps saying and it will until at least 2030, that plays well on the numbers front. As an assumption, let's assume it stays at around $6,000

    2) Project Delivery. This is where most lithium companies suck, and AKE is a long term offender. The numbers plugged in are based on the companies estimates. Do they ever get it right? Not really, but let's pretend that the forecasts hold.

    3) What we don't know. Forecasts could change very quickly for Mt C in particular if the recent drilling campaign can extend LOM in the short term and the long term (talk about moving to the next stage of underground mining). We should also get a much larger resource upgrade from James Bay. We also have the potential to start building a conversion plant at JB (theoretically shouldn't be that hard because GXY built one once to convert its spod). We then have a few growth prospects in Argentina such as further Oz stages. How quickly does that all come online when announced?

    4) Market sentiment. When does the market give weight to what we should be worth. In my opinion we should be around $20 now, but we are not, just a matter of market sentiment aligning with the numbers. If the market is ready to add weight to future earnings, share price will ride higher faster.

    So based on the above assumptions, my complete guesses would be something along the lines of.

    End of 22/Early 23 - $20
    End of 23 - $25
    End of 24 - $ 32
    End of 25 - $40
    End of 26 - $50
    End of 27 - $55

    For now I would be most comfortable with the numbers until the end of 2024. DYOR all.

 
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