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Lithium prices, page-757

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GCar

14,148 Posts.

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19/05/23

09:34

Post #: 67857292
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Originally posted by Cadel ↑

Replying to Seatheworld

Absolutely correct. In some ways it is the gift that keeps giving. So none of us expected the rise to $80000 per tonne of carbonate or $8000 a tonne for spod. But it got there. Those of us in the know knew that the latest spot prices are all smoke and mirrors and if it went that high before it will certainly go there again. Anyone who wasn’t all in before could comfortably add more when our OZ lithium producers went to yearly lows.

The only issue in this case is Livent going for a merge at the bottom of the market. If we were still in the lithium bull run would they get anywhere near 44% of newco. I read an interesting article a little while back about how the instos, one of the Morgan’s I think were deliberately talking the oversupply story and lithium price down since they were trying to get deals with the Chinese players. Maybe they were also trying to get in with Livent management, who knows.

But this deal is timely for them, we are producing a lot more than them so lower prices give them closer evaluations, also we are about to expand massively in the near term. Whether this merge is good or not there is no way they get such a large slice in a year or so when the lithium price is much higher and we have much more production.

I imagine this so called independent valuation will come out real quick before either occurs. We will leave Livent well and truly in the rear view mirror in the years to come. Yes there are some good synergies and yes there is some doubt over our managements ability to maximise our potential, but we are sure as hell giving a lot of the farm away to gain these. As a GXY long termer I wasn’t over the moon about the ORE/GXY merge but could see the benefits particularly in this medium term. This current merge is largely out of our control. If it means we don’t get scooped up in the near term and it is the only way to survive long term so be it, but if we can survive long term on our own we should do it (or at least get a much larger slice of the pie).

This last dozen years or so have been one hell of a ride. Busted pipes, company near death, selling the converter for more than the companies worth, giving GMM 50% of MtCattlin for peanuts and buying it back for a small fortune etc. etc. Not sure how much more the heart can take. Retiring 10 years early may help. It always seems like just one more hurdle. Seems like our Argentinian mate couldn’t care less, I imagine he has a nice little bonus in all this. Since it seems like this new turn may have been in the planning before the ORE/GXY merge I’m sure he will do OK.

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“Seems like our Argentinian mate couldn’t care less, I imagine he has a nice little bonus in all this. Since it seems like this new turn may have been in the planning before the ORE/GXY merge I’m sure he will do OK.”

I haven’t checked the outstanding performance rights, but my understanding is that they vest automatically upon a scheme of arrangement being finalised….
Martin taking bags of cash to the bank for an easy retirement..?

AKE Price at posting: $15.30 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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