Agreed, LTR's loss of its pre-approved funding is really a true reflection of the fear that is currently in the Li markets, most specifically it highlights the fact that both the spot and mid-term re-evaluated prices do matter and are critical to the project success (despite some still holding on to the long-term 'Structural Deficit' arguments).
Recent and violent Li pricing fluctuations in the short and medium horizons have proven disastrous for the advanced project developers, it is blatantly obvious across the whole sector - valuations are in the basements, CXO and LTR are just particularly great examples of it.
A quick read across my own tracking tables for the Li industry is quite telling: SYA: -87% from a recent peak (!) VUL: -88% from a recent peak (!) PLL: -76% from a recent peak NVX: -94% from a recent peak (!) LKE: -97% from a recent peak (!) LTR: -70% in 4 months (!) BMM: -89% from a recent peak INF: -68% from a recent peak LRV: -85% from a recent peak ACDC (Battery Metals ETF): -22% in the past 4 months LRS: -60% from a recent peak AZL: -90% from a recent peak LPM: -67% from a recent peak ASN: -77% from a recent peak CY5: -85% from a recent peak AGY: -87% from a recent peak A11: -61% from a recent peak RAS: -90% from a recent peak GLN: -77% from a recent peak PLL: -74% from a recent peak LIT: -86% from a recent peak EUR: -54% from a recent peak IGO: -56% in a few months (loss of $7B+ in MC) PLS: -37% from a recent peak (!) MIN: -45% from a recent peak (!) AZS: +1145% over the recent time (!) WR1: -72% from a recent peak GL1: -82% from a recent peak EMH: -85% from a recent peak (!)
LLL: Suspended (anticipated to plummet when resumes to trade) AVZ: Suspended (anticipated to plummet when resumes to trade)
Trillions of dollars have left the battery metals sector. The above summary is just our tiny Li sector ASX-listed entities, looking at the global market is equally depressing, as well as looking at the Ni and Graphite companies.
If LTR is seeing their finance getting pulled at a such an advanced phase of their project - EMH will need all the luck in the world and the whole of Czech / EU on its side to secure $1B for the project.
As Jonathan said, I sure hope that CEZ is going to be taking a long term strategic view of Cinovec as the current Li market situation is in the absolute gutter, and if CEZ ditches Cinovec project EMH will be in a world of pain.
My prediction: CEZ will defer FID whilst continuing to develop permitting and EIA documents for Cinovec, EMH will then be forced to CR via EBRD.
Note 1: Apologies to the LTH holders of all the above stocks, this is more of a 'high level market tracking' exercise rather than a stab at any particular stock.
Note 2: Please take note of the sector macro vs individual stock performance lesson here, looking at the tickers above it would have been basically near-impossible to 'pick a winner' over the past 3-4 years if one was trading using a LTH investment strategy.
Note 3: EMH was doing remarkably well compared to its peers and was trading about ~-55% against its ATH and was actually showing great resilience in the downtrending market (it even was in top 5 gaining juniors for a few weeks) until the very recent plummet that have introduced -68% drop to its SP in only a few months time (KC you just had to ruin everything didn't you?).
Note 4: Here is a funny screenshot from a few minutes ago, and confirms one of my trough indicators: "Government intervention into the Market", we almost got a bingo, not yet though.
Hang tight everyone, Li market is approaching the trough, I am personally allocating capital into the advanced developers and producers who are well positioned on the cost curve. Recovery will come, it is a fact, just a matter of when, and which of the above producers and developers will survive 'the trough' as the cash gets tight, the M&A's accelerate (that is yet to fully materialise) and the dilutive CRs ripoff the shareholders.
(20min delay)