Hey Goldilocks,
With reference to your other posts that comes after this; and as
@ChocolateTeapot had indicated - LTR's 3 binding offtakes is likely giving us hint that our SC6.0 prices probably are around 7% ~ 9% of LHM market price; which we won't know until at least first shipment of the product to our offtake partners.
There's certainly a lot of room for "wriggling" when it comes to numbers and certainly so when it comes to my spreadsheet; remember that it is only a high level overview of the project over its LOM and not an indication of YoY level of detail.
For simplicity's sake and the purpose of illustrating my above points of how the production/financial profile could look like and with a few assumption;
1. Flat LHM price (the price we will be getting from our offtake partners) of USD $70K/T and SC6.0 at 7% of LHM; USD $4.9K/T over 10 yrs LOM;
2. Flat Cost of Production SC6.0 (USD $700/t), LHM (USD $5,500/t) also over 10 yrs LOM;
3. Head office corporate cost start off at $54m (as indicated in LTR's latest DnD preso) and increasing 10% per annum;
4. Assumed LHM Refinery $2B Capex instead of $1.5B as per Downstream SS.
5. Financing Cost - $300m pay off by 2029 with $60m interest payable straight line over 5 yrs (see my post
62333251).
5. 40% dividend pay-out (declared) in the 1st Year; something I did not believe will occur until the 2.5Mtpa capacity is fully utilised in my past post.
6. Exchange Rate is current (live data) - obtained from Google Finance.
I am fairly certain that we can reach $1 EPS without the need to go downstream provided if we can achieve an SC6.0 sale price of $4.9K/T USD at above 520 Ktpa at the current exchange rate.
Even though I've included it in my sheet above;
I'm less certain from Yr 6 onwards as Tony had already indicated a couple of times that it is likely we will get a partner for downstream and I have indicated this in my past post
62134600 &
62409050 how LTR is likely to structure the JV amongst other consideration.
I'm currently looking forward to the Downstream PFS and the Mining permits.
(20min delay)