Lithium Related Media Articles, page-16723

@batey1
thanks for your great summary of the preso. Appreciated.

I'm patiently and confidently waiting

The progress in the mine development which I saw on the video was really mind blowing. Being a part this process and holder of Liontown really makes me proud.

But the speed, the quality, the determination of that mine development are also scaring the majors which want to takeover it.

We can see RIO has knocked out of the ring. RIO CEO was as if he was crying at the AGM. He didn't named LTR but it was obvious that the was talking about LTR. But his speech was weird, was not suiting to a CEO of a major miner. He said “I think it is very difficult to justify to go inand buy at these high prices unless youalready know you can sell lithium at a highprice, but I think that’s very uncertain".

The first point he should have made was "We are late in lithium business. Sorry"

The second point he should have never made was this; he wants someone to guarantee the high lithium prices for him. He has an army of researchers and analysts but can't make the forecasts, asking for guarantee. Who gives him the price guarantee for iron ore? No one. You are in business and you will make your own analysis, calculations and forecast. That's why you are making business in capitalist system.

For example I was making a lot of research and analysis work in last 5 months when the lithium price was going down.

• I was trying to understand the reasons,
• I was actually seeing that was because of de-stocking of cathode makers, and then conversion factories started de-stocking.
• But I needed to be sure, and had to go deeper.
• I calculated all new supply which was starting production this year.
• I saw the new supply from new mines (Especially Sigma in Brasil and Sayona in CA) would be late, they wouldn't be able reach their nameplate capacity in this year even maybe not in next year,
• I was also watching if the expansion capacities of existing mines would be realised (Wodgina, Mt Marion, PLS)
• I researched China's own lithium resources including lepidolite production areas and cost of producing lithium carbonate from lepidolite,
• I realised the cost is around 300k yuan for tonne of making LCE , so find out that $4000/t for spod would be the bottom level, otherwise lepidolite mines couldn't be operated if the spod went lower,
• I find out all salt lakes in China, checked all potential to produce lithium carbonate, found out they would be also very high cost production which would not be competitive with spod at $4000/t, because they are ordinary salt lakes (not at high altitude like in Sth America) with very little lithium content in them.
• I found out lately (from the Q1-2023 reports) of all new supply from new mines and expansion in the existing mines would be delayed and would be in low quantities,
• I had already the calculation of min demand for LCE as 1mt in 2023 from the EV sales of Q1-2023,
• I saw that the supply in 2023 would not be enough for the demand.
• Hence the lithium prices would be still very high and profitable for LTR's production in 2024.

Then I said "OK, all good, let's stay where we are (in LTR) and wait for the production".

No one guarantees the lithium prices for us indeed, but we make our own forecasts.

I did my own research in 2014 and I believed the EVs would be the mainstream in 15 years time especially after 2025. No one did it for me I did it for myself.

So I really couldn't understand RIO CEO's statements at AGM. But anyway that's their problem. RIO is knocked out of the ring it seems, because RIO's Jadar project in Serbia is not economically viable, even worst than Chinese's lepidolite projects IMO.

Can we still see a new bid for LTR?
I know this is in everyone's mind.
I can't say definitely "No".

ALB seems it is not knocked out. They fought for 3 rounds and lost all three. Do they want to fight another round or will they throw the towel on the ring?

We are on the ring. Anyone wants to try we are here.

Is WES coming?
Lonely or with SQM?
Not announced yet..!
Doesn't matter.

They should be all knowing that there will be only one round, because we are leaving the ring soon by the time being our mine development is advancing and we will not be on the ring again.

This is the last chance.
The price tag given to them was just for April and May IMO .
Then it will go up every month.
Sorry.

Btw way there are other questions;
Why is Credit Suisse buying that much?
Is CS accumulating for a buyer or,
buying for covering shorts?

The shorters reached to 200m shorts in March, then they bought 65m in one day when LTR revealed ALB's takeover offer March 30. The shorts went to 135m that day. they were 104m as of April 2nd and 113m as of May 3rd (can see it today). Now that tells me the shorters covered only 22m in more than one month. At that rate they would be able to cover their shorts maybe in six months at best. That's terrible for them. But yes that's their problem as well.

I will be patiently and confidently waiting as always.
Because...