Unlikely. State Street and Vanguard both have 5%+ stakes, but both had also started accumulating before the ALB offers were made public.
It is, of course, POSSIBLE that the institutional investors will strike a deal with Gina, but to be frank, the likes of State Street and Vanguard are more likely to strike a deal with ALB than they are to do it with Gina.
I'm not operating at the level that our BOD, Gina and the ALB bloodsuckers are; even if I thought I could, I'm not privy to the information that they're receiving. What I WOULD remind everyone, though, is that ALB still has the best chance of a pure buyout, even though I agree with most that Gina can block it. Gina has proven to be great, for herself, but doesn't seem to give a rat's behind about SHs in any other firm she's been affiliated with. At the end of the day, she hasn't tendered an offer and she still holds less than 20% of shares. She has enough to block ALB, but not enough to take the prize, herself.
I'm GUESSING that the ALB offer will ultimately fail, because there are still several hurdles, and the natives are restless, and throwing blocks into the machinery at every opportunity.
Here is what I foresee happening (which is PURE speculation, based on the currently available public information):
1. The ALB offer will fail, at least at $3.00. Several things could happen regarding ALB, from a surprising success at $3 to a failed bid that requires 4-6 months waiting before they can lodge another bid, to another bid coming in before the ALB bid is deemed a failure, allowing ALB to up their offer.
2. As soon as the ALB bid is killed, I anticipate that the SP will drop. It's hard to tell exactly how much, but we should bear in mind that the SP before the ALB bid was announced was in the $2.60 region, and the price of spod has only been going down, since, so $2.40-$2.50 isn't out of the realm of possibility.
3. My Guess #2 could be way off, but so far, all the talk I have seen about a run on shorts if the deal dies seems counter-intuitive, since shorters would love to see the share price drop from $3.00 to $2.50. Still, the possibilty exists that with all the attention that LTR has been given, the $3.00 price floor COULD actually now be a $3.00 price ceiling, and once the deal is done and it looks like LTR will go mining, the price could rise on FOMO, which really COULD create a short squeeze.
4. I suspect that if/when we actually do go mining, LTR becomes profitable almost instantly, what with analysts' estimates that the first full year of mining could see us profitable to the tune of $2B, or nearly $1.00 per share. That would almost instantly see us with a dividend, probably in the $0.20 to $0.25 range, and a share price in the $8 to $10 range (again, assuming we hit the profit metrics that have been predicted by analysts well above my pay grade).
I'm happy to hold, and see how this plays out. Regardless of the machinations of billionaires, I still like the fundamentals of this firm, even with development cost overruns and the fact that ramping-up is never easy in the first year or two. As I get older (56 and counting), the idea of a steady stream of dividends looks and sounds good to me.
Best regards, all
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