So you don't have a full list, just list the ones you knew, and using spodumene concentrates design capacity, to "inflate" future lithium supply over next two years.
Okay, I know 3 million spodumene concentrates are lot, but converted into LCE, also needs to consider around 15% conversion loss, the 3m concentrates are in fact around 350kt LCE.
Obviously, I also account for new production from brine and lepidolite. That's why my new supply figure is much higher, 750ktpa LCE by 2025.
Now, we need to talk about incremental demand over next two years. ALB believes lithium demand will be 1.8 million tons LCE in 2025. That's around 800kt LCE incremental for next two years. Which is 50kt LCE higher than the new supply.
How can we justify that 800kt LCE? Global EV sales were 10.39 million cars in 2022, it's very likely to reach around 15.4 million cars (including bus, commercials), that's 5m units incremental. It's forecast global EV sales to be around 20 million units in 2024. In 2025, China alone, EV sales would reach 20 million units. So global EV sales in 2025 are likely to exceed 25 million units. 1m EV sales roughly require 50kt LCE, 10m incremental EV sales, would require 500ktpa LCE. Then lithium demand from storage energy, and 3C electronics, etc.
Bear in mind, once penetration over 20%, mass adoption will accelerate. Global annual new car sales are around 90 million cars. Currently global EV penetration rate is around 17%.
All imo.
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