I remember this time last year reading Lithium market forecasts...

I remember this time last year reading Lithium market forecasts and they all without exception showed DEMAND massively outstripping SUPPLY. They were based on sound logical assumptions and were very credible.
However in CY2023 the SC6 price dropped from US$8400/dmt to USS1030dmy (11/1/24). This is a ferocious drop by any standards and quite clearly signals that in the latter half of CY2023 SUPPLY > DEMAND. So why were the forecasts ALL WRONG? My view is that they all significantly overestimated the demand for EVs and all the other forms of technology that used Lithium in one form of another. This tends to be a recurring theme in forecasts for the adoption of new technology.
Fastmarkets in their December 2023 comments on the Lithium market summarised the current situation as exhibiting weak demand and high inventories (of LiOH). A very unpleasant combination that does not support an immediate price recovery.
The door to CY2024 has opened and once again we are being presented with forecasts of a similar nature to CY2023. They may get it right this time BUT the current situation has to be resolved before the SC6 price can recover. Demand must improve and at least equal but preferably exceed supply. This will encourage LiOH producers to drawn down on their inventories and eventually commence the reordering of SC6 for their factories. The evidence is that we are not there yet. I use the word "yet" because I am hoping for a rebalance during CY2024. However I could be wrong and demand could remain subdued throughout CY2024 and if this scenario transpires then there will be no SC6 price recovery. This is not necessarily a bad situation because it is likely to result in a reduction of SC6 supply (eg CXO) which would contribute to a possible market rebalance in CY2025.
The market will speak when rebalancing occurs and the SC6 price will consolidate and gradually (preferably) commence an upward trajectory. LTR will then attain its star status.