Just and amendment for my post above; The African country mentioned on my post should have been Zimbabwe but not Mozambique.
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Now lets' have a look at what Goldman Sachs said on its BS lithium reports.
This is GS's latest report on its web site on Nov 30 2023.
"Lithium: The short trade must go on"
GS is giving some graphs which are very hard to understand because they only select the graphs show downtrend. While the all trends are up, they give YoY Change graphs. For example, the growth rate from 2021 to 2022 was very high, they dont give the growth rate from 2022 to 2023 but gave the YoY Change graph which shows a down trend because the 2022-2023 change was not as big as the 2021-2022 growth.
This is the example below. They invented an arrow showing downtrend.
LOL... even though the actual growth rate graph is up as below.
But they don't take responsibility. They say this at the end of that page;
They describe their report as a "Single factor" and telling you not this is what they believe.
Btw, they hold large stakes in lithium stocks including LTR.
I will give you their large table later on in this post but see some of the graphs how much misleading here.
This is their original graph. No numbers nothing on it to understand the scale of the increases.
But I measured it and roughly found out the numbers. Here is my modified graph. According to this graph the Australian production increase would be nearly the same with Chinese lepidolite, and Zimbabwe production increase will also 75% of Australian production. The production from Zimbabwe will be 150kt LCE (all LCE here). That makes around 1.2m spod concentrate from Zimbabwe. Because see the increase in Australia in the same period is only 200kt LCE. How come Zimbabwe will make the same increase with Australia when LTR and WES/SQM will start production? That is ridiculous.
Can you imagine the BS..!
Then GS reaches to a very high level of LCE supply from hard rock. No probs on the graphs, you can do it. LOL...
Just to scare market I believe, otherwise they can't be so stupid IMO.
This is the magical table GS has made.
The magic is it makes the supply much higher than the demand.
How they GS does it?
Very simple. You put 13% demand increase and 908kt LCE demand tonnage in year 2023 (while the actual EV sales increase is 40% and LCE demand is over 1mt) and put 31% supply increase and 945kt LCE supply tonnage.
Bang you have a 37kt over supply in 2023. Magic.
When you look at year 2024 you will see the same thing; 17% demand increase against 35% supply increase. OK we are dead..!
The demand tonnage in 2024 is 1,060t and supply is 1,274t.
214kt over supply.
But I'm saying the opposite. The supply will be much less than demand in 2024.
The world will need at least 1,300kt LCE in 2024 but the supply might be no more than 1,100 by these low prices.
We will see how it will play out this year.
Another very interesting point on this table; you will see my breakdown of GS's table. It tells us that China will be the biggest miner in the world after 2024.
See the number below; China will produce 4,862kt from its own resources between 2025 and 2030 while Australia will produce 4,442kt in the same period.
MAGIC again.
You can see the same thing at GS's another table below.
You can see on the table below that year 2023 and 2024 are the KEY years for GS. There is huge supply increase but not much demand.Interesting imagination by GS..!
Here is the same table with my breakdown and comments.
GS has very interesting researchers and analysts. Good on them. LOL..!
(20min delay)
