Lithium Related Media Articles, page-21315

Following your poor contribution on this topic (echoing some news), here you have the expected impact of spodumene from Zimbabwe on global lithium demand for 2024. As a summary if you are unable of reading more than 10 lines, mines from Zimbabwe will only supply (at full capacity) one third of the expected demand growth. So they alone are not going to close the gap between supply and demand. On the contrary, the gap will widen if no other new production comes.

Here the expanded numbers.

Let’s beoptimistic with the predictions at both sides: supply and demand.

SUPPLY

There is littleinformation freely available for these African projects.

BikitaMinerals:

I’ve found thisnews from Sep 29^th 2023 announcing first shipment:

https://miningzimbabwe.com/bikita-minerals-exports-over-90-000-tonnes-of-petalite/

The newsindicates that the mine was targeting total shipments of 70,000 mt SC by theend of year 2023 with an average grade “speculatively between 5% and 5.5% Li2O”.If they were successful for the 4Q2023CY, that projects to an annual production/shipmentof 280,000 mt SC, close to but below total capacity. So let’s be optimistic andgive Bikita an annual production of 300,000 mt SC5.5.

Arcadiamine:

Theirformer owners (Prospect Resources) announced an Optimised Feasilibity Study(OFS) in December 2021 with a nameplate capacity of 2,4 Mt of raw ore at 1.19 %Li2O:

https://prospectresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/61068491.pdf

New owners(Zheijang Huayou Cobalt) aim at producing a final LCE of 50,000 mt (annually). Thisnumber may most probably result from a real onsite production of 450,000 mt ofSC6.0 that equals to a final LCE of 50,000 mt at the Chinese converters with a75 % yield.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/huayou-starts-trial-production-zimbabwe-lithium-mine-invests-namibian-project-2023-03-22/

Siba Starmine:

Formerowners (Max Mind Investments) announced an annual 300,000 SC production in Dec2022:

https://miningzimbabwe.com/plans-to-produce-battery-grade-lithium-in-zim-underway/

But the newowners (Chengxin Lithium) have reduced the expectations to a nominal annualcapacity of 200,000 mt SC from an annual raw ore production of 900,000 mt:

https://en.cxlithium.com/product/43.html

If you considera more than average ore grade of 1,5 % Li2O in the raw material and an optimumrecovery of 80% at the concentration plant, that gives you 200,000 mt of SC5.4.I’ll take these optimistic numbers for their 2024 production.

So the 3 minesyou indicate at Zimbabwe have this capacity for 2024:

- BikitaMinerals: 300,000 mt of SC5.5, equals 32,643 mt LCE (at 80 % yield).

- Arcadia:450,000 mt of SC6.0, equals 50,077 mt LCE (at 75 % yield).

- SabiStar: 200,000 mt of SC5.4, equals 21,366 mt LCE (at 80 % yield).

Which makesa total “oversupply” of 104,085 mt LCE.

For thoseinterested, I’ve taken the SC to LCE conversion yields of 75-80 % from thisreport:

https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-global/public-consultation-document-determining-the-price-of-minerals-a-transfer-pricing-framework-for-lithium.pdf

The yields proposedare comparable to the one expected by Covalent Lithium (SQM-Wesfarmers) atKwinana: 75 %.

https://www.covalentlithium.com/refinery

DEMAND

Albemarleannounced to investors an expected 28 % YoY growth of lithium demand, globally,for 2024: from 1.0 Mt LCE to 1.3 Mt. That includes EVs, Grid storage as well asindustrial and consumer needs. Q4 2023 EarningsPresentation, Feb 14th 2024 (page 19):

https://s201.q4cdn.com/960975307/files/doc_earnings/2023/q4/presentation/Q42023_presentation.pdf

Albemarlealso expects demand to reach 2.3 Mt LCE in 2027 (+ 1,300,000 mt more than in2023)

GROWING LITHIUM MARKETIN 2024

+300,000 mtLCE more in demand (Albemarle outlook)

-104,085 mtLCE more, full capacity from Zimbabwe

Now you may want to add those expected to start selling in 2024 that obviously won't reach nameplate annual production:

-50,000 mt,full capacity from new entrant Covalent Lithium (Mt. Holland mine-Kwinanarefinery)

-55,000 mtLCE, full capacity from new entrant Liontown Resources
...and so on...


So as every stakeholder in the lithium industry is predicting and warning, many many more mines are needed to meet YoY increasing lithium demand. And contrary to what you and other uneducated "market analysts" are wrongly interpreting, there will be no oversupply unless demand starts decreasing YoY. This hasn't happened yet and nobody is predicting to happen.