I see it as barking the wrong tree thinking that strong China EV growth is good news for lithium.
Chinese EV growth comes on the back of competitive price cutting which is only made possible largely due to cheaper battery costs, and by virtue of cheaper lithium prices. China EV growth is dependent on cheap lithium price just as lithium demand is dependent on strong EV growth.
China is leveraging on low lithium and battery costs to leapfrog its Western rivals in the EV space. They have no interest to want to see lithium prices returning to previous prices.
Yes, at some stage battery surplus inventory would be drawn down as EV growth continues and so lithium prices would have to move higher. But at the same time, we can only believe that the Chinese would be seeking new lithium supply sources from SA, Africa while accelerating research on their battery technology to arrive at better range with lower costs, with perhaps less lithium (unless they remain cheap).
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The fact that Ganfeng, a player who is involved in brines and hard rock, states that its expansion focus will be brine-based lithium production, confirms that Li from brines, if well operated, are be at the low end of the cost curve and capable of producing BG Li Chemicals.
https://x.com/D_Jimenez_Sch/status/1244967899674152963?s=20
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