Very very much worth the time to watch all of this … my “quick”...

Very very much worth the time to watch all of this … my “quick” takeaways below. My thoughts in [ ]

• Ford makes more profit on hybrids now than on ICE car sales (that’s profit per car)
• Increasing sales in hybrid tell him that community desire to move to full electrification is accelerating
• He races cars - he’s a “petrol head” - he says there is insufficient focus in media on the personal experience of driving an Ev - driving past all fuel stations, greater acceleration, deceleration by lifting right foot and regen …
• About 90% of Americans drive no more than 300 miles at ANY time and more than half only drive more than 150 miles 4 days in a year
• Within 5 years he sees profitable sales of EVs WITHOUT any government subsidisation - focus needs to shift to smaller lighter cars, big heavy EVs don’t produce the volume of sales for profit without subsidies.
• Commercial EV sales will be major focus with 95% battery utilisation in their commercial customers and so more cost effective buying
• US tariffs on Chinese cars will impact companies other than Ford as they have do not have a big China exposure in their business unlike GM and Volkswagen (60% of VW profit linked to China) - [note Ford is of course one of LTR offtake companies and they are focused on US IRA benefits]
• EVs are mobile data collection devices. In China Ford is not allowed to park a Ford next to a Government building due to the data the car gathers via cameras - [now consider wha that means in reverse and perhaps why US 100% tariffs have been imposed]
• Ford requires China Defence department approval to sell cars in China. Same not required in reverse
• 95% of battery value is raw materials (any battery not just EVs) - Ford works with S Korea and Japan and some Chinese battery makers for battery supplies BUT are requiring controls over raw material supply origins for those battery makers around ESG. [Now consider why Ford locked up offtake with LTR]
• Skunkworks facility in Southern California - learnt if just take ICE platform and turn it into an EV it doesn’t work … customers like them but costs too much to build that way. Best to use super light weight wiring, research in aerodynamics, weight saving far more critical to EV manufacture than ICE, put computer into car before rest built so car diagnoses itself if being built correctly, reduces needs in factory design.
• 2.5 years and they expect a $30k car out of Skunkworks which is profitable without subsidies. Expect major competitor to be Tesla Model 2, BYDs and some Chinese “state owned enterprises”
• V2G - seen customers now demanding car can operate stationary - ie used to supply power not involved in transport. Work sites, houses, camping due to worries about grid stability. That directs their investments in V2L/H/G. Unlike Tesla, Ford chose not to make a seperate energy storage business but rather have all their cars be able to output energy from their cars. [Consider what that means for battery size in Fords and flow on effect via Offtake needs for battery materials]
• Expect bi-directional charging to become normal and even required for all future EVs from a perspective of how best to support power needs of the future rather than more investment in large utility scale power plants [consider what that means for off take and supply demands]
• Stopped robotaxi type research and investment into self driving of “normal” cars. Due to limitations they see around technology being able to completely self drive in poor weather and other inherent limitations they see with robotaxi concept. Focusing instead on highway driving activities. He sees fully self driving “eyes off” for highways in 2 years.
  
• Acknowledges that Tesla did not need to give Ford cars and customers access to supercharger network but appreciates that happening.
• Work vehicles and passion vehicles are Ford’s focus not commodity (passenger cars). Ford supplies 75% of electric vans in US. 40% of those commercial customers buy Ford charging equipment (“Ford superchargers” - he sees Ford retaining that commercial space and not have Tesla compete in that business. [Now consider how having both Tesla and Ford as LTR offtakes provides access in our business to those different segments of EV]
• Sees high performance vehicles (race/supercars) being high efficiency petrol engines as generators with electric drive and regen and likely making use of man made zero carbon fuels. F1 cars switch to that fuel source in 2026. [To what extent will the Fossil Fuel industry take a hit when high performance engines switch to zero carbon man made fuels and battery/electric drive?]
• Sees weight in EVs as the number 1 focus aside from energy efficiency in EVs. Redesign body, chassis etc. Large unit casting is key to this weight saving (“mega casting”.
  
• If self driving is perfected people won’t need to “own” an individual car - fleet ownership and leasing/short term ownership models more financially effective in terms of utilisation of battery. Once industry big enough and sufficient batteries in community as well as recycling capability, won’t need further raw material supply [Here he was talking about much longer term, but consider what that means for explorers for new raw materials down the track vs those in production and earlier in production]
• Sees potential for car manufacturers to become “owners” of cars once smaller, cost effective cars along with perfecting autonomy which allows company like Ford to keep ownership of the car, design them more for refitting/upgrading/recycling. [To me that resonates a bit like how large aircraft manufacturing and refurbishment operates vs small private aircraft]. Again talking distant future ideas at this point. Consider the “EVone” experiment of decades ago.
• Batteries 99% of technology in Teslas and Ford batteries are South Korean or Japanese but materials come from Chinese processing. Ford diversifying supply of mining and processing of materials for batteries are from “places that Ford likes”. Tesla currently on a small scale already processing nickel and lithium in Texas. Learning how to do it in America - not promoted by Tesla but important to the US. [Again consider Ford and Tesla are major offtake customers for LTR along with LG Chems]
• He’s less worried about potential for trade war or similar blocking access to batteries and more worried about data security and national security associated with autonomous vehicle data gathering in US.