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Why is this poster now ramping the possibility of an ALB...

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dazaliam

6,177 Posts.

2004

13/08/24

19:41

Post #: 75191229
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Originally posted by anatol ↑

I don't think IGO can get the control of Greenbushes after buying 49% of ALB stake. I'm not sure though. That'd be a quite complex corporate situation. Tianqi and IGO has a JV Called TEAL and Tianqi holds the control in that JV according to its agreement or constitution. After buying ALB's stake IGO wouldn't be able to change the structure of the TEAL JV I guess.

Regarding to IGO's strategy for being keen on buying ALB's stake even though IGO will not be controlling GB mine; btw, considering it would have to pay a price around $4b, I think IGO has already holds 25% stake and knows everything about GB mine and operation. It's a mature mine, already in production.

IGO bought it in 2021 by paying close to $2b, then that money returned as profit to IGO in next 2 years. As you may know GB mine has made a revenue of $10.5b in FY 2023 and the $9.5b was profit.

So IGO might be thinking that, yes the mine life is not long but they would be able to get the $4b invested money back in next 6-7 years plus will be able to make similar amount in profit when the market goes into to lithium supply/demand deficit.

So, that'd be an easy and less risky investment decision for IGO.

At the other hand ALB might have other plans. They already have half of Wodgina as a hard rock resource. And maybe thinking to put a bid for LTR together with Hancock. We don't know that of course. ALB also has two chemical conversion plants in China. ALB also had a plan to build a chemical plant in the US but they put it on hold for now. The reason must be they can only feed the spod from Wodgina (as they only half of Wodgina, the other half belongs to MIN) to their Chinese conversion plants but nothing from GB as it's not IRA compliant.

So ALB might still be thinking of LTR's KV project which they know very well as they have already made a due diligence on KV project.

Time will tell.

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Why is this poster now ramping the possibility of an ALB takeover now when he has previously dismissed the idea because of Gina's holding? Maybe desperately trying to stop the SP crash? Priced to fail and likely a long way from floor as Li prices keep falling. Dumb idea bringing a new mine located in a high cost jurisdiction during a Li price slump. imo

LTR Price at posting: 81.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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Why is this poster now ramping the possibility of an ALB...

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Why is this poster now ramping the possibility of an ALB...

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