The global ‘trade war’ over China’s booming EV industry

MULTIPLE AUTHORS

08.28.24

CHINA POLICYQ&A: The global ‘trade war’ over China’s booming EV industry

China’s “new energy vehicles” (NEVs) have been the centre of media and geopolitical attention in recent months.

NEVs is a Chinese term and includes battery-electric (BEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) as well as fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

According to data from China Customs and industryassociations, the vast majority of Chinese NEVs being produced, sold and exported are BEVs and PHEVs. In this article, BEVs and PHEVs are referred together to as “EVs”.

In 2023, more than half of the EVs on the world’s roads were in China, pushing China to be the world’s largest EV market and producer. This rapid growth has largely been fuelled by the Chinese government’s support.

From 2009-2023 – in addition to strong policy support – the Chinese government poured an estimated $230bn into the industry, with this rate accelerating nearly three-fold over the past five years, even as some subsidies ended.

As a result, NEVs accounted for around 51% of all cars sold in China in July 2024, according to industry data. Carbon Brief’s analysis finds that 88% of China-made NEVs were sold domestically in 2023.

However, production has outpaced demand. The Paper, a state-affiliated newspaper, says that, except for a few leading brands, such as BYD, most Chinese EV makers produced a lot more cars than they could sell last year.

Meanwhile, EV exports from China – including foreign brands, such as Tesla – have increased 160-fold from 2019 to 2023, triggering fears of “overcapacity”.

In response, the EU, US and Canada have announced tariffs on China-made EVs, in what somepublications have described as a “trade war”. To date, the UK – a leading importer of Chinese EVs since 2019 – has not announced any tariffs.

Chinese officials have strongly opposed these trade barriers, and launched “tit-for-tat” investigationsinto EU products. However, some in the industry have argued they will only be a “temporary setback” that will push firms to focus on other markets, such as Africa.

In this Q&A, Carbon Brief looks at the Chinese EV industry, the history of its rapid growth as well as the support it received from the government. The article also explores whether it has an “overcapacity” problem, where the exports end up as well as why the US, EU and UK have adopted different trade strategies.