Three analysts on ABC Radio in Perth this morning, discussing Lithium, one was keen on Lithium today, the other two tended to follow the Ellison line, that Lithium will be a good longer term investment, but that investors should not expect a recovery in the Lithium price imminently.
Their argument went that large global companies like Albermarle would not reduce production at mines like Greenbushes if they thought the Lithium downturn would only last a year.
This view was in line with the Ellison opinion that he did not expect an upturn in Lithium pricing probably until 2027.
Albermarle were taking the same view, that Lithium is a good longer term investment, and the next upturn will most likely occur, or commence, in 2027.
This was also highlighted by Volkswagon over-night, who did a backflip on their EV production targets, stating that they no longer expected to be producing only EVs by 2030, but because of the slowing demand for EVs they would produce more Hybrids and push out their timelines to become a 100% only EV production company into the 2030s sometime.
It's interesting that Volkswagon should do this, especially when we hear that nearly 50% of all cars in China are now EVs. Can you believe the China rhetoric however? I tend to think is pretty close to the mark though, or at least, with BYD pumping them out, it would not surprise me.
So it's fairly clear, if you listen to the experts in the industry, both car manufacturers, and resource analysts, and company CEOs like Ellison, and global production companies like Albermarle, they are nearly all stating quite clearly what the current Lithium situation is (for them), and when they believe the market will turn.
All of them remain very positive on Lithium in the longer term, but believe the downturn will last longer that most people here want to believe.
If true, and there is no reason to not believe all these experts and industry insiders and manufacturers, then it would be a good opportunity to now buy Lithium stocks for the longer term, and will therefore, more than likely, reward the very patient and longer term investor, provided that you buy the good stocks (like LTR) near their lows, if possible.
Such are the winds of change.
You will also note overnight, the very interesting opening of the first Zinc-Ion battery megafactory to mass production capacity in Europe, which of course promoted the fact that their batteries don't catch fire, and last longer than Lithium-Ion batteries. However, from what I have read, they would appear to currently be more suited to large grid scale purposes, but let's see how well it does, and how many other Zinc-Ion megafactories the Europeans build.
Battery development is a very interesting and very fast changing space.
For instance, there is a company who have a developed a coating for Lithium-Ion batteries that claims to reduce their tendencies to sometimes catch fire by up to 80 percent, which would seem a very good development, given the thousands that catch fire each year.
There is just so much going on in the Lithium and EV and Battery space at the moment, that it's difficult to keep up with the ever developing science, but it's always fascinating to try and do so, and to follow the scientific research, much of it coming out of good universities.
Gw
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