Unfortunately those journos are quite weak in collecting,...

Unfortunately those journos are quite weak in collecting, confirming and analysing the information. So they are making wrong assumptions and getting wrong commentary about the news they are making.

For example in this news from Dataroom, the journo says RIO's mcap as $47b (this number should be AUD as there is no ). This is wrong..!



The journo is saying Albermarle's mcap as US11b. And the journo makes a comment that it is well within its (RIO's) grasp. (US$11b makes AU$16b btw.)

If RIO's mcap was really AU$47b, I'd say "Hmm, AU$16b acquisition is quite a big and risky one for RIO".

The real thing is RIO's mcap is AU$172b.
And yes Albemarle is well within RIO's grasp.
(RIO also has a very large cash stockpile)

Because "Rio Tinto operates under a dual listed companies (DLC)" structure the journo can only see the mcap of Australian listed Rio Tinto Limited which has 412m shares and a mcap of AU$47b. Unfortunately the journo is not aware of Rion Tinto PLC which is listed in London Stock Exchange and NYSE.

I am giving this example because the journos are not that reliable by their news. I wouldn't believe what they say; They may be not accurate, not right, not in good faith, etc. Just DYOR.

Anyway, when it comes to takeover issues of LTR, I'd say that anything can happen at anytime. That is what I believe. There are very different players in the market which might want to acquire LTR.

Yes my favourite player is RIO, alone or within a JV.

We know that BHP is not interested in lithium business. That opens the door for RIO to make its moves freely in the lithium market because as I said long time ago those two largest mining giants won't make moves to a target when the other makes a move into it. So RIO is free here.

Lets jump to Albemarle thing for a quick analysis. I said long time ago that ALB had to buy LTR because they knew the high grade ore would run out in Greenbushes around 2031-2032.

Then they will be in very hard position to find spodumene feedstock to get their Kemerton lithium hydroxide refinery running. Wodgina's spod feedstock is not suitable for Kemerton because of couple of reasons btw. ALB have already invested more than $3b into this refinery without any success in production. So it's already look like a graveyard.

This means ALB failed to acquire LTR, failed to get the Kemerton plant working properly,.. and failed in many things.

I also said on one of my posts long time ago that if I were RIO and were targeting to acquire LTR and ALB, I'd wait for ALB to takeover LTR and then I'd acquire ALB. (I don't have time to find these posts btw).

Now what we can see in the market is a quite different landscape to the landscape of 2 years ago. My opinions;

LTR is in production, it's in ramp up process without any problem, it has money over $400m to go for a long time until the lithium price recovers.

It's all understood by the predators of LTR (takeover candidates) that takeover of LTR is not going to be easy and cheap.

At this time it'd be easier to start from the top maybe. Buying ALB is easier than ever for RIO as ALB has a lots of big problems financially and managerially. I mean ALB is in a weak position atm.

After buying ALB, RIO can make a move for LTR because LTR is being a smaller target while LTR is a KEY LITHIUM COMPANY for the western lithium supply chain.

I said this on my Post #: 70602676 on Oct.29, 2023 after ALB pulled back its takeover offer;

"What I can see now is that we are going mining. That's for sure now, unless we receive another takeover offer. I am still thinking that LTR may receive a bid by a major but this time it's highly probable that Gina would in the bidder side.

That might be Gina-RIO, Gina-ALB, Gina-XXX. I don't think Gina would be happy to buy LTR alone because it'd be even expensive for her. I don't think she would play mind blowing, legally ok buy unethical games over LTR to acquire it".

That means RIO can easily make a JV with Gina which she might be more than happy.

Also, yes, Hancock's stake looks like a hurdle for some, but it may not be for RIO. RIO may put its bid at a good price to acquire LTR by the "Scheme of Arrangement" takeover bid, then if RIO can get only 75% of voters (plus 50.1% of headcount of holders) which is quite possible then the acquisition is done. Gina would have to sell her shares to RIO at the offer price.

Let's wait and see what comes next, while we keep producing spod and cash.