LTR 3.82% 81.5¢ liontown resources limited

The stated costs at full production for LTR are estimated at...

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    The stated costs at full production for LTR are estimated at A$651 per DMT, of which there is a A$60 credit for tantulum, so without tantulum the estimated cash costs are A$711 per DMT. During ramp up the cash costs will be higher, as cash costs stated at A$651 are based on economies of scale essentially. Agree this A$651cost excludes sustaining capex costs in production - which kicks in as plant ages and is also related to major periodic maintenance of plant and equipment etc (meaning not an issue at this initial ramp up stage).

    Also agree, that the stated cash costs are FOB, which is apparent from the DFS and project update: Post #:70089149 and Post #:57483407

    The 6% grade price is in US$802 for 5.2% concentrate, so in effect as a guess the price would be around (5.2/6.0* 802) US$695 per DMT. Current A$ exchange rate to US$ is about 67c, so the price per DMT could be around A$1037 per DMT. Agree, these prices are CIF basis - cost of insurance and freight - meaning the buyer pays all costs at the unloading terminal, noting unloading costs do form the CIF price in a way as usually the CIF price is a price negotiated by buyer and seller (meaning who bears costs is reflected in price).

    As a guide post FOB freight costs for spodumene concentrate would be around US$30 per tonne DMT, based on data I recall seeing in the past, but if others have better data go for it.

    So for comparability, the FOB price would be around ((5.2/6) *(US$802- US$30))/.67 = A$1000 per DMT.

    My gut feel is the cargo is around break even. However that is not a bad start in a ramp up stage for the first shipment. So this reult is quite good. As grade of product improves towards 6% and recovery rates are reached, and provided cash costs are within the stated outcome, there are a lot of positives here.

    Finally, LTR's main contracts are stated to have pricing mechanisms linked to the lithium hydroxide price. Yes the Sinomine short term Offtake is linked to carbonate price only, but that is not the norm associated with LTR's other contracts - refer Post #:58802067 and Post #:59617374 to illustrate.

    I disagree with your view ramp up etc is factored into the share price. Clearly if LTR meets metrics, been operating costs and recovery rates and production estimates and grade of product sold, then SP is certainly heading well north (but obviously a key to that is appropriate lithium prices). I see the Sinomine contract as essentially a ramp up contract that aids in the ramp up stage of the mine, and in testing the production parameters and ensuring the plant is working appropriately.

    All IMO
    Last edited by Scarpa: 05/10/24
 
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