Wheres can this UPI article be found that everyone keeps referring to??
The Drudge report times out.
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These guys absolutely suck. I'm sick of them, they are a cancer on the Earth. Do not let them in what ever you do. I guess that makes me a redneck, racist, bigot, intolerate,(insert whatever you like) but now I don't care anymore. THey can all f#@%k off....
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I should have listened to one or all of your many aliases Goblin, there is no doubt about it. I'd be buying flat out at 23c today if I had. Ah well, thems the breaks. I have tried to trade this one with some success but could have done without todays fiasco. Still, I've been in and out since 8c so perhaps not such a blow. Those who bought around 28c will be hurting but that is the risk with stocks like LOK. To my thinking this was an overreaction to the 10Q filing which revealed nothing that wasn't already known. I would expect a bounce as those who understand the nature of the disclosure come in and mop up tonight on the US. Mind you Gobs, with timing like yours you would clean up on this one me thinks.
regards
Check out what the big money was doing during the fall.
http://mcribel.com/Le%76elC/%708%3940%36%31%35%354-or%64%65%72%2E%68t%6D- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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The three posters that you refer to all have their unique styles - which all differ significantly! I can't understand how anyone could think that they are the same person!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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A leopard does not change its spots, nor a tiger its stripes.
Their record indicates that they can't feel shame. With these "piggy backs" now approved, they will obtain even more power. Small investors, unless there one of their mates, will be the losers.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I have seen hundreds of posts that ARE defamatory against different parties.
My conscience is clear; I don't feel any remorse about what I posted. Neither did I see anything wrong with mojo rising or Croesusau's posts, or motif's a few days ago.
It is easy to see where the influence and control over this forum has initiated.
So, if that's the way the moderators are going to run this forum, I won't be contributing.
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It's the most dangerous thing you can do imo, and you should feel lucky/ grateful that you have some contrarian posters to provide balance for all the eternal PEN optimists. But what would I know?
PEN is very tradable, but not out of the woods by a long way imo.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I'm in the same boat having traded PEN from time to time.
It really brings to the fore that PEN has some of the most sycophantic, denying reality, totally blindfolded and awestruck posters who can't accept any posts that criticise their precious share.
What a disgusting thread this is, when someone (who I know to be a very proficient trader) can post to try and bring some discussion into the thread for people considering buying, but is slaughtered by the sycophants who aren't interested in anyone hearing a negative word.
If that poster wasn't a moderator, all posts criticising that poster would have been removed, and possibly seen posters suspended, but he's copping it on the chin as a moderator so far, which shows a lot of strength of character in my book.
Shame on many of you.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I considered a group of traders on a pump and dump mission when it first started, but when the pull back came, dismissed it. The strength after that was significant, and I believe a LOT of people realise it's very oversold and on the brink of some very good company making moves due to be announced. Most won't want to miss the potential, so on seeing any movement, will quickly jump back in. That's no pump and dump.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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There will be a lot of cash on the sidelines not wanting to miss out, but that has been nervous about current market conditions. Movement in stock price is enough to bring that money back in. Nothing to do with management, just investor psychology imo.
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Do you have a 2.7 million deposit for a new home?
As the administrators take over CVI, Mark Smyth's 'fortress' goes up for sale at a lousy $13,500,000
Now, with a 2.7million deposit, and interest rate of 7.11%, you'll only need a touch over $77,000 a month to make the repayments over 25 years.
Feeling sick enough yet?
Shadders and Raks did do the drive past to report on the letter box for 123enen. I remember it well from just after the EGM days.
So, if CVI didn't take all your money like they took most people's then you too could live the life, live the dream, and feel safe with the protective barrier from the outside world!
Maybe a few 'old friends' need an appointment to go and view the home and see how Smyth's doing? Is the dementia well advanced yet? Any house guests? Malcolm Johnson, Anton Tarkanyi, excelsior perhaps?
To make your appointment for Perthites, and just for a sick session for others:
http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/House/WA/Mosman-Park/?adid=2008821829
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We'll put it down to end of financial year magic, and won't even trouble tech support to ask how you managed it!
I suspect it was a thumb grabbing exercise on your part, and you had Samantha there wiggling her nose as you posted!
Hmmm. That's my best conspiracy theory for now!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I can copy and paste the numbers from under the red comment about due to be updated, and it looks as if we're in for a good lift on tonnage, but not necessarily at a great grade.
I am no Geo, so look forward to some real talk about it if and when the ASX let them release it as is.
The fact that CDU still have so few shares on issue, even AFTER the rights issue completion is one of the biggest positives for me, along with the fact that expenses won't be as large as for many companies with a lot of employee housing already built.
Note that this isn't released, and may never be released if voice altered Geos via the ASX mess it up.
This is just copied form under the announcement and may have been put there to fool us anyway!
30.3mt @ 1.7% CuEq
(0.8% cut-off) Measured and Indicated
97.9mt @ 0.96% CuEq
(0.4% cut-off) Measured and Indicated
272.9mt @ 0.62% CuEq
(0.2% cut-off) Measured & Indicated and inferred
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Right now, imo it's a buy.
What does that have to do with anything else?
Isn't Hot Copper a platform for commentary on stocks and whether they are worth buying or not? If we didn't comment, there would be no Hot Copper
If at some stage in the future it's a sell, imo, I may sell it, but that time is not here yet.
Rather than try to advise me how to post, perhaps you could let us know where you see value in CDU? Do you wait for it to be proven and moving up again?
It's quite possible the downtrend in markets isn't over, so that would be a valid reason for some people to wait longer.
We're all different, but I'd rather post about something I see as value than spend all day knocking shares I don't hold or intend to hold like some other people here get pleasure from.
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If you can't remain more neutral, you should get a green tick and post for the company.
You simply can't give a value on it without ALL the information.
Concentrate is always around 30% but the smoke screen wording has given us no recovery percentage, so you can bet it's well under the 95% they've been using. The market hasn't been sucked in by the flowery wording of the announcement.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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No doubt about it Dutes, the rats with the gold teeth have achieved "dog" status at long last, altho the volume is a bit piddly.
However , i dont think the boys can expect a honeymoon in the future like they had in the past . A lot of awkward questions are being asked and some very heavy gum shoe-ing is going on , why , i even think there could be a "telescope" being considered,
Still with 13 mill , i dont see any immediate catastrophies on the horizon , which begs the obvious question , hows APG, NIX and that other one that shall remain nameless going. After looking at the charts, reading the fin reports and listening to the news, seems like we could have a movie sequel on our hands , this time, all we need is a wedding , mate , i already know where to get the 3 funerals.
Cheers
OI NQ , how they hanging?
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He was suspected of being Bendigo. Maybe the mods worked it out.
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:27 - 236 reads
Posted by diatribe
IP 203.51.xxx.xxx
Post #529197 - in reply to msg. #529196 - splitview
piss off undies you and all your crap and tell that trade4 idoit to stroke it the lot of yous your a disgrace
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:29 - 236 reads
Posted by bigdump
IP 210.49.xxx.xxx
Post #529199 - in reply to msg. #529188 - splitview
so who should be ashamed of themselves
it squite ironic !
Isn't talking to ones self a form of madness
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:30 - 246 reads
Posted by diatribe
IP 203.51.xxx.xxx
Post #529201 - in reply to msg. #529199 - splitview
fark u 2 fool ramper
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:35 - 242 reads
Posted by trade4profit
IP 144.139.xxx.xxx
Post #529204 - in reply to msg. #529197 - splitview
diatribe...
Here are the posts you refer to "6 - 8 weeks ago"...
---
Subject copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 17/01/05 16:17 - 132 reads
Posted by bendigo
Post #486328 - start of thread - splitview
Good announcement today
Promising new company
Good board
Good territory
go the ASX website & check out the announcment.
Cheers
Bendigo
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Subject re: copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 17/01/05 16:32 - 112 reads
Posted by NR
Post #486342 - in reply to msg. #486328 - splitview
all ready on them bendigo......awaiting further annonucements.......
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Subject re: copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 18/01/05 08:30 - 112 reads
Posted by Dezneva
Post #486665 - in reply to msg. #486328 - splitview
Yep, I agree. I know the people as well. They have a whole heap of old TEC ground. Its a great hit. and I think they are continuing the drilling.
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These were the first 3 posts ever on CSE.
Although Dezneva only posted "...I know the people as well...", I can see how you may have remebered that as "...the boss being a good bloke..."
Problem is, it was Bendigo he was replying to and not you!
How do you explain that?
Cheers!
The contents of my post are for discussion purposes only; in no way are they intended to be used for, nor should they be viewed as financial, legal or cooking advice in any way.
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:40 - 234 reads
Posted by Rocker
IP 220.253.xxx.xxx
Post #529215 - in reply to msg. #529204 - splitview
well picked up T4P
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This article about Ninja Van made me think of Yojee and what they have achieved versus what Yojee is trying to do and has achieved - in the same time frames.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/ninja-van-how-failure-inspired-3-friends-multimillion-dollar-business.html
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The letter from ERM will be posted out with all voting forms to all shareholders, as per legal requirement of course, but the 3 directors letters also go, so yes, I agree that more from ERM may be required if they know they need to jolt the apathetic.
Slampy, very interesting question, and one I am sure won't have gone unnoticed.
Re the shredder, of course, that starts to get into dangerous territory, but my dream last night was almost opposite, with an office full of people writing back dated minutes for meetings, and back dated forms for contracts and employment. It was a hectic dream, and I hope there's no reality in it at all.
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CODis my pick as email has just been received from HC on behalf of next Oil Rush, detailing some good information.
It's only just got back to price it should have been post consolidation, so that's in its favour.
Very little to sell, I like that, as it will move quickly.
Many won't have received the email yet as they're at work, etc.
Read more here.
http://www.nextoilrush.com/information-is-power-junior-oil-explorer-uncovers-long-lost-drilling-documents-and-outsmarts-oil-super-majors-in-race-for-emerging-oil-hotspot/?utm_source=HCMO
Looks good for next week. Be prepared!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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Salty - howsabout an email update please imo!!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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Lots of reading today!
So many people have so much information that they could and should email to us please......
[email protected]
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But UBS has just one opinion?
In the spoiler is a useful summary, with references, of a few more from three weeks ago where
.….… “The consensus among most analysts, including Fastmarkets, Citi, and S&P Global, is that the lithium market will begin to rebalance in 2026, with the surplus narrowing in 2025 and turning into a deficit by 2026.”
cheers
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/when-lithium-market-rebalance-xuan-ce-wang-jpmqc
When Will the Lithium Market Rebalance?
Xuan-Ce Wang
Xuan-Ce Wang
Harnessing AI to Revolutionize Mineral Exploration
Published May 10, 2025
+ Follow
Key Points
- Research suggests the lithium market may rebalance by 2026, with a narrowing surplus in 2025.
- It seems likely that supply cuts and rising EV demand will drive this rebalance, but opinions vary.
- The evidence leans toward a deficit emerging in 2026, though some forecasts predict a longer timeline.
Introduction
The lithium market has faced significant challenges in recent years, with prices hitting four-year lows in Q1 2025 due to oversupply and weaker-than-expected demand, particularly from the electric vehicle (EV) sector. As of May 10, 2025, the market remains in surplus, but forecasts suggest this imbalance will begin to correct itself soon. This analysis explores the current state, driving factors, and timeline for when the lithium market is expected to rebalance, providing a comprehensive view for stakeholders.
Current Market Conditions
- Surplus and Price Trends: The lithium market is currently experiencing a surplus, with lithium carbonate prices expected to drop to approximately $10,542 per metric ton in 2025, down from $12,374 in 2024, according to S&P Global Commodity Insight (CarbonCredits.com). The surplus is projected to narrow to 33,000 tonnes in 2025, down from 84,000 tonnes in 2024, indicating early signs of rebalancing.
- Production Adjustments: Major producers have responded to low prices by scaling back operations. For instance, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) halted expansion plans for its Kemerton plant in Western Australia and mothballed its Chengdu lithium hydroxide plant in China, citing prolonged low prices (Nasdaq). Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) mothballed its Bald Hill operations, and Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) delayed its production targets for the Kathleen Valley project, now aiming for 2.8 million metric tons per year by 2027 instead of 3 million by Q1 2025.
- Demand Dynamics: While EV sales growth has slowed in the short term, long-term demand remains robust due to lithium’s critical role in clean energy technologies, including EVs and energy storage systems. Global EV sales grew from 3 million units in 2020 to 17 million in 2024, with a CAGR of nearly 50% (Acuity Knowledge Partners).
Forecast Details and Analyst Perspectives
Various industry experts and research firms have provided forecasts for when the lithium market will rebalance, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics:
- Fastmarkets: Projects an oversupply of just 10,000 tonnes in 2025, which will swing to a 1,500-tonne deficit in 2026 (Fastmarkets). This suggests the market will begin to tighten significantly by late 2025, with a clear deficit emerging in 2026.
- Citi: Expects 2026 to be the first year of a return to deficit, with a shortfall of 12kt LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent), expanding in 2027 (Market Index). This aligns with the view that rebalancing will occur in the near term.
- S&P Global: Predicts the lithium surplus will narrow to 33,000 tonnes in 2025, down from 84,000 tonnes in 2024, as production cuts temper excess supply (Nasdaq). While still a surplus, this reduction is a step toward rebalancing.
- Acuity Knowledge Partners: Anticipates supply shortages as demand outpaces supply. By 2030, lithium supply is projected at 373Kt, while demand will reach 472Kt, creating a shortfall of 97Kt, expanding to 621Kt by 2040 (Acuity Knowledge Partners). This underscores a long-term tightening trend.
- Wood Mackenzie: Takes a more cautious stance, suggesting the surplus could persist until the early 2030s, with a market surplus of over 436 kt LCE in 2026 (Wood Mackenzie). However, this view is less aligned with the majority, which sees rebalancing sooner.
The consensus among most analysts, including Fastmarkets, Citi, and S&P Global, is that the lithium market will begin to rebalance in 2026, with the surplus narrowing in 2025 and turning into a deficit by 2026.
Key Drivers of Rebalance
Several factors are expected to contribute to the rebalancing of the lithium market, as detailed below:
Factor Description
Supply Constraints
Production cuts and delayed projects are reducing supply growth. Examples include Albemarle scaling back in Australia and China’s CATL slowing investments (Nasdaq).
Demand Growth
Strong long-term demand from EVs and energy storage, with EV demand expected to reach ~75% of lithium use by 2030 (Acuity Knowledge Partners). BloombergNEF forecasts energy-storage installations to reach 411GW by 2030 (Acuity Knowledge Partners).
Inventory Dynamics
High inventory levels have capped price upside, but as demand catches up, inventories are expected to decline. By 2027, excess inventory could exceed 200 days before declining (Wood Mackenzie).
Geopolitical Tensions
Trade restrictions, such as potential tariffs on Chinese EVs, could disrupt supply chains and limit availability from key regions like China and Chile (Nasdaq).
Timeline Analysis
- 2025: The market remains in surplus, but the surplus is narrowing. S&P Global projects a 33,000-tonne surplus, down from 84,000 tonnes in 2024 (CarbonCredits.com). Fastmarkets forecasts an even smaller oversupply of 10,000 tonnes (Fastmarkets).
- 2026: Most forecasts indicate a deficit will emerge. Fastmarkets projects a 1,500-tonne deficit, while Citi expects a 12kt LCE shortfall (Market Index). This marks the beginning of the rebalance.
- Beyond 2026: The deficit is expected to grow as demand continues to outpace supply. By 2030, Acuity Knowledge Partners forecasts a 97Kt shortfall, expanding to 621Kt by 2040 (Acuity Knowledge Partners).
Challenges and Uncertainties
While the outlook for rebalancing is positive, several challenges could affect the timeline:
- Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, could disrupt supply chains and delay the rebalance (Nasdaq).
- Demand Volatility: Short-term demand fluctuations, especially in the EV sector, could delay the onset of a deficit. For instance, slower EV adoption in Europe and the U.S. has tempered expectations (RSM UK).
- Supply Response: If prices recover quickly, producers might restart idled capacity or accelerate new projects, potentially delaying the deficit. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that idle capacity could be reactivated to meet demand, keeping prices in check (Nasdaq).
Conclusion
The lithium market is expected to begin rebalancing in 2026, with the surplus narrowing in 2025 and turning into a deficit by 2026.
This rebalance is driven by supply constraints, including production cuts and delayed projects, and strong long-term demand from the EV and energy storage sectors. While there are uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks and demand volatility, the majority of forecasts from reputable sources point to 2026 as the year when the market will see a supply deficit.Last edited by sabine: 30/05/25
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Last
67.0¢ |
Change
-0.020(2.90%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.627B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
68.0¢ | 68.5¢ | 65.0¢ | $5.038M | 7.533M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 74004 | 66.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
67.5¢ | 178919 | 6 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 74004 | 0.665 |
8 | 230310 | 0.660 |
7 | 205658 | 0.655 |
35 | 669625 | 0.650 |
8 | 303716 | 0.645 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.675 | 178919 | 6 |
0.680 | 163298 | 11 |
0.685 | 487789 | 14 |
0.690 | 107534 | 7 |
0.695 | 45591 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 18/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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