Researchers from East China Normal University in Shanghai and Sweden’s Lund University described this as a “looming crisis” that could cause “delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals”.
They warned that domestic lithium production could grow as much as 10 times in some areas of Europe, the US and China by 2030 but still fall short of the “soaring demand” without technological innovations or increasing imports.
Lithium, an element which is generally obtained by mining, is a critical component in most EV batteries.
Qifan Xia, East China Normal University
EVs are seen as vital to decarbonising road transport, and demand for them is surging in Europe, the US and China.
Pure battery electric new cars held a 20.9% market share for the first five months of this year, up from 16.1% during the same period in 2024.
Sale of conventionally-fuelled new cars will be banned in the UK from 2030.
The report found that under “most scenarios” for the future levels of lithium production and the amount required, domestic supplies in Europe, the US and China – where 80% of the world’s EVs are sold – “cannot meet demand”.
This would lead to those regions “requiring trade to fill the gap”, the study added.
Researchers estimated that Europe might need 792,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent – a measure of lithium content – by 2030.
Based on existing and proposed lithium-mining projects, production in Europe could reach 325,000 metric tons at that point.
Measures to tackle the shortfall suggested by the authors of the study included shifting focus from producing personal EVs to promoting the use of public transport, and adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium.
The UK imports all the lithium it currently uses from countries such as China and the US, but several companies are developing plans to extract reserves in Cornwall and the North East of England.
Portugal is the only European Union member to mine and process lithium.
Qifan Xia, of East China Normal University, author of the study published in journal Cell Reports Sustainability, said: “Lithium today is as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution.
“While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries.
“Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers, and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals.”
Ben Nelmes, founder of green consultancy New AutoMotive, said: “Lithium will be a key part of the economy, from mining and refining through to cell manufacturing and recycling.
“It is therefore vital that European policymakers send positive signals to investors by maintaining ambitious targets for electric cars and a supportive environment for mining projects.”
Separate analysis by the organisation estimated that up to a quarter of a million jobs in Europe could be created in the next five years through EV battery production and the supply chain.
These include roles in sectors such as mining, gigafactories – large sites where EV batteries are produced – and recycling.
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