Thanks Gememde. My understanding from the IGO Ann today was that the US$1034/t sc6 was the realised price for the Q4 calendar year 2023. That means the ALB realised price on 24 Apr is about +30% up on that, three months hence. I'm not a metallurical expert to assess if the chemistry of the product is comparable. Can someone with lithium mining expertise comment?
If it is comparable then my DCF model based on the LTR's DFS suggests that the LTR "fair" sp based on NPV should be in the A$1.73-1.80 range. Admittedly the DFS has a bit of age on it, so may not quite accurately reflect latest views on future cash flows. But pallpark the current sp undervalues the business by at least 28-31%, based on my reckoning.
Plenty of upside here. Good luck shorters. I'm in for the long run and will happily stock up more on the next low.
My opinion only, DYOR.
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