Hard to say when we only have the PFS numbers to go off. Joe confirmed at the AGM that they believe they can get to $0 cash costs (which is what I believe is being compared here at $5001) net of byproducts, but they won't be near that at start of operations. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the first year of P1 is upwards of $6000/t, net of byproducts. That's just the reality of starting new plants and bedding down operations.
Since the PFS, the plant size has doubled (which should provide economies of scale), the byproducts have changed from sodium silicate and potash (caesium, tantalite and sodium sulphate had no value in the PFS) to to amorphous silica, potash and sodium sulphate.
Amorphous silica is lower value, but also lower cost and lower risk than sodium silicate, and further work can be done on it to make higher value products later on. Sodium sulphate isn't hugely valuable, but should plug some of the value gap between amorphous silica and sodium silicate.
TL;DR - we won't know the P1 costs until the DFS comes out, and I would expect them to be high early, followed by sustained drops as efficiency is improved and higher value products are developed.
Cheers
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