Posted for research and some forecasts in various metal demand etc for EVs. All the below is IMO IMO.
How much lithium in batteries How much lithium is in a battery - refer Post #: 40855132 - essentially shows mathematically from chemical conversions, how much lithium should be in a battery, i.e. 0.371 LCE per KWh, but because of inefficiency and battery loss you normally work on 0.8 kg LCE per kWh - 0.9 LCE per kWh for typical NCM/NCA batteries. With SSBs there was a lot of discussion in the PLS threads on this issue, with the answer been about double your typical batteries - how that translates to demand is based on battery size, because SSBs mean you get more energy/distance per kWh than your typical batteries. That discussion starts from this post and there is not that many after - Post #: 44583606 - but here is picture in that post.
Lithium forecasts and price Refer 1st embedded post above with forecasts and what 2000 GWh means for greenfields projects. If demand is delayed, essentially greenfields projects are delayed. My personal view is long term prices will average around US$600 per tonne for 6% grade spodumene, meaning the days of over US$700 per tonne as per 2017 and 2018 is not what people should be expecting. As the industry matures this is what you would expect, as well as the fact EV takeup is a function of cost, because batteries account for 1/3rd of an EV cost. To compete with ICE vehicles and therefore encourage takeup prices of inputs need to be competitive.
Until prices for spodumene increase then the debate around which greenfields projects come into production first is completely academic, albeit I have a preference of which one/ones are most likely to be in production in 2025 to 2030. The first movers will be IMO existing producers, which will be the basis for determining the point at which prices start rising again. Personally, I am expecting prices to start turning in the 3 months to 1 year because existing producers are struggling, to be frank, and if the EV forecasts are what they are, well existing producers and new greenfields projects need prices in the range US$550 per tonne to US$650 per tonne to make the capex decisions in a IRR/NPV context to for viability - Post #: 46622153.
The below comes from the first embedded post shows what 2000 GWh translates to in 2030, in terms of required mines, noting current GWH demand is about 300 GWh. Note: whilst the below is spodumene based, you can change it to spodumene/brines to get the idea as not all the growth will come from spodumene (albeit it will be interesting how Atacama deals with water and environmental issues on a go forward basis).
Essentially, for every 1 million new EV passenger vehicles, an equivalent 45,000 tonnes LCE is needed at a installed battery size of 50 kWh assumption (which roughly translates to 45 kg of LCE in each battery). Or another way to look at it 2.94 EVs are produced per tonne of 6% grade spodumene concentrate.
This picture from a PLS presentation shows the makeup changing to hydroxide - it is the move to hydroxide that i important for hard rock mines, noting SSBs will require lithium carbonate, but probably a lithium carbonate product that is higher end than even hydroxide, so making hard rock still a good bet. If batteries were not moving to NCM 8:1:1 or SSB, then the batteries would be lithium carbonate based, and probably that would be the domain of brines.:
Other commodities in EVs The below picture gives you a graph of mineral commodity demand in EVs - https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/the-relentless-march-toward-an-ev-future-is-good-news-for-miners. From recollection, for graphite it is essentially 1 kWh of battery capacity requires 1 kg of spherical graphite/synthetic graphite depending on the mix of input the two in the graphite based anode of lithium ion batteries, albeit there are variances in the estimates from recollection. May convert nickel when I get a chance.
