windriders comment https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120400/single to overlap the lithium price chart with the demand got me started on this, and I did this https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72122271/single.
It was further exacerbated by onetricky with his naive interpretation of the EV sales and future estimates - that is what really set me off and I did this: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120694/single.
Anyway - enough of how I got here.
What I really would like to do is to provide the best possible analysis for the supply and demand of Lithium. Please can you all help with that, by providing data from any reasonably credible source. I will happily incorporate that in tables - my first attempt is below. My confidence in the experts Lowry and Hooper is declining - as evidenced by the fact they did not see the huge drop in Li price.
There is lots of talk about destocking, and oversupply - but talk only, no figures.
One thing we should be wary of is that the lithium mined in one year does not end up in a car for some time - maybe 6 months, maybe a year - if anybody knows please inform us. The reason I say this is that if you compare at the production of spod in 2023 you should compare it with the demand for cars/grid etc for 2024. In particular the price.
For example, at the end of 2022 the price of LCE was about 500,000 CNY/t - at 0.22 AUD per Yuan that is $110,000. At that rate a car produced with that Lithium, holding 50kg LCE would have $5,500 of LCE. However, at the current price below 100,000 CNY the LCE cost per car is $1100. So, the cars produce in late 2023 (from the expensive LCE price) should be much more expensive than the cars coming out in 6 months or a year from now, from the low cost LCE. And what is the implication for low price LCE? It would be good to get more data on this.
Below is my data. I preface that with my assumptions - and for everything else I provide references. And then there is a list of interesting data points, which I could add to the table when I can connect them together. I have colour-coded the cells with the same colour as the references to source data.
I am happy to add/change whatever is needed to make it better. This is unfinished work. Please help.
* data sources: *1 car sales https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72058285/single *2 interpolatedcar sales https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120694/single *3 PLS global supply https://unauthorised investment advice/resources/pilbara-minerals-boss-dale-henderson-is-investing-against-the-lithium-downturn-as-he-waits-for-the-perfect-storm/ 30-Jan-24 *4 Li global demand https://www.statista.com/statistics/1220158/global-lithium-demand-volume-by-application/ 1-Sep-21 *5 World LCE supply & demand https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/tomorrows-lithium-demands/ 26-Oct-23 *6 Global Li supply as LCE https://www.adamasintel.com/weekly-lithium-lowdown-week-02-2024/ 12-Jan-24
assumptions: 50 kg of LCE in average car 7 tonnes of Pilgangoora grade spod for 1 tonne LCE 650,000 tonnes spod per year - base production of Pilgangoora mine 92,857 tonnes LCE - base production of Pilgangoora mine 7% percentage of world Li supply by PLS (DH at * 30/1/24 see *3) 1,326,531 world Li supply as LCE (for 2023 based on DH statement see *3)
year car sales mill Li required for cars as LCE tonnes tonnes of spod required for cars Li for cars pilgangoora size equiv world LCE demand worldLCE Demand for Evs worldLCE Demand for other worldLCE supply worldLCE Demand 2020 3.3 165,000 1,155,000 1.7 292,000 113,000 179,000 2021 6.6 330,000 2,310,000 3.4 2022 10.5 525,000 3,675,000 5.4 720,000 750,000 2023 13.8 690,000 4,830,000 7.1 1,326,531 1,022,185 2024 17.5 874,782 6,123,474 9.0 2025 21.7 1,082,805 7,579,636 11.1 1,140,000 787,000 353,000 2026 26.2 1,311,602 9,181,213 13.5 2027 31.1 1,555,298 10,887,083 16.0 2028 36.1 1,806,945 12,648,613 18.6 2029 41.2 2,061,905 14,433,332 21.2 2030 46.3 2,313,045 16,191,312 23.8 2,500,000 2,084,000 416,000 1,640,000 3,060,000 2031 51.0 2,551,288 17,859,017 26.3 2032 55.4 2,767,637 19,373,461 28.5 2033 59.1 2,955,283 20,686,982 30.4
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