Lithium Supply and Demand

windriders comment https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120400/single to overlap the lithium price chart with the demand got me started on this, and I did this https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72122271/single.

It was further exacerbated by onetricky with his naive interpretation of the EV sales and future estimates - that is what really set me off and I did this: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120694/single.

Anyway - enough of how I got here.

What I really would like to do is to provide the best possible analysis for the supply and demand of Lithium. Please can you all help with that, by providing data from any reasonably credible source. I will happily incorporate that in tables - my first attempt is below. My confidence in the experts Lowry and Hooper is declining - as evidenced by the fact they did not see the huge drop in Li price.

There is lots of talk about destocking, and oversupply - but talk only, no figures.

One thing we should be wary of is that the lithium mined in one year does not end up in a car for some time - maybe 6 months, maybe a year - if anybody knows please inform us. The reason I say this is that if you compare at the production of spod in 2023 you should compare it with the demand for cars/grid etc for 2024. In particular the price.

For example, at the end of 2022 the price of LCE was about 500,000 CNY/t - at 0.22 AUD per Yuan that is $110,000. At that rate a car produced with that Lithium, holding 50kg LCE would have $5,500 of LCE. However, at the current price below 100,000 CNY the LCE cost per car is $1100. So, the cars produce in late 2023 (from the expensive LCE price) should be much more expensive than the cars coming out in 6 months or a year from now, from the low cost LCE. And what is the implication for low price LCE? It would be good to get more data on this.

Below is my data. I preface that with my assumptions - and for everything else I provide references. And then there is a list of interesting data points, which I could add to the table when I can connect them together. I have colour-coded the cells with the same colour as the references to source data.

I am happy to add/change whatever is needed to make it better. This is unfinished work. Please help.

* data sources:
*1	car sales	https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72058285/single
*2	interpolatedcar sales	https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120694/single
*3	PLS global supply	https://unauthorised investment advice/resources/pilbara-minerals-boss-dale-henderson-is-investing-against-the-lithium-downturn-as-he-waits-for-the-perfect-storm/							30-Jan-24
*4	Li global demand	https://www.statista.com/statistics/1220158/global-lithium-demand-volume-by-application/							1-Sep-21
*5	World LCE supply & demand	https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/tomorrows-lithium-demands/							26-Oct-23
*6	Global Li supply as LCE	https://www.adamasintel.com/weekly-lithium-lowdown-week-02-2024/							12-Jan-24

assumptions:
50	kg of LCE in average car
7	tonnes of Pilgangoora grade spod for 1 tonne LCE
650,000	tonnes spod per year - base production of Pilgangoora mine
92,857	tonnes LCE - base production of Pilgangoora mine
7%	percentage of world Li supply by PLS (DH at * 30/1/24 see *3)
1,326,531	world Li supply as LCE (for 2023 based on DH statement see *3)

year	car sales mill	Li required for cars as LCE tonnes	tonnes of spod required for cars	Li for cars pilgangoora size equiv	world LCE demand	worldLCE Demand for Evs	worldLCE Demand for other	worldLCE supply	worldLCE Demand
2020	3.3	165,000	1,155,000	1.7	292,000	113,000	179,000
2021	6.6	330,000	2,310,000	3.4
2022	10.5	525,000	3,675,000	5.4				720,000	750,000
2023	13.8	690,000	4,830,000	7.1	1,326,531			1,022,185
2024	17.5	874,782	6,123,474	9.0
2025	21.7	1,082,805	7,579,636	11.1	1,140,000	787,000	353,000
2026	26.2	1,311,602	9,181,213	13.5
2027	31.1	1,555,298	10,887,083	16.0
2028	36.1	1,806,945	12,648,613	18.6
2029	41.2	2,061,905	14,433,332	21.2
2030	46.3	2,313,045	16,191,312	23.8	2,500,000	2,084,000	416,000	1,640,000	3,060,000
2031	51.0	2,551,288	17,859,017	26.3
2032	55.4	2,767,637	19,373,461	28.5
2033	59.1	2,955,283	20,686,982	30.4