windriders comment
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120400/single to overlap the lithium price chart with the demand got me started on this, and I did this
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72122271/single.
It was further exacerbated by onetricky with his naive interpretation of the EV sales and future estimates - that is what really set me off and I did this:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120694/single.
Anyway - enough of how I got here.
What I really would like to do is to provide the best possible analysis for the supply and demand of Lithium. Please can you all help with that, by providing data from any reasonably credible source. I will happily incorporate that in tables - my first attempt is below. My confidence in the experts Lowry and Hooper is declining - as evidenced by the fact they did not see the huge drop in Li price.
There is lots of talk about destocking, and oversupply - but talk only, no figures.
One thing we should be wary of is that the lithium mined in one year does not end up in a car for some time - maybe 6 months, maybe a year - if anybody knows please inform us. The reason I say this is that if you compare at the production of spod in 2023 you should compare it with the demand for cars/grid etc for 2024. In particular the price.
For example, at the end of 2022 the price of LCE was about 500,000 CNY/t - at 0.22 AUD per Yuan that is $110,000. At that rate a car produced with that Lithium, holding 50kg LCE would have $5,500 of LCE. However, at the current price below 100,000 CNY the LCE cost per car is $1100. So, the cars produce in late 2023 (from the expensive LCE price) should be much more expensive than the cars coming out in 6 months or a year from now, from the low cost LCE. And what is the implication for low price LCE? It would be good to get more data on this.
Below is my data. I preface that with my assumptions - and for everything else I provide references. And then there is a list of interesting data points, which I could add to the table when I can connect them together. I have colour-coded the cells with the same colour as the references to source data.
I am happy to add/change whatever is needed to make it better. This is unfinished work. Please help.
| * data sources: |
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| *1 | car sales | https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72058285/single | |
| *2 | interpolatedcar sales | https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72120694/single | |
| *3 | PLS global supply | https://unauthorised investment advice/resources/pilbara-minerals-boss-dale-henderson-is-investing-against-the-lithium-downturn-as-he-waits-for-the-perfect-storm/ | 30-Jan-24 |
| *4 | Li global demand | https://www.statista.com/statistics/1220158/global-lithium-demand-volume-by-application/ | 1-Sep-21 |
| *5 | World LCE supply & demand | https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/tomorrows-lithium-demands/ | 26-Oct-23 |
| *6 | Global Li supply as LCE | https://www.adamasintel.com/weekly-lithium-lowdown-week-02-2024/ | 12-Jan-24 |
| assumptions: |
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| 50 | kg of LCE in average car |
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| 7 | tonnes of Pilgangoora grade spod for 1 tonne LCE |
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| 650,000 | tonnes spod per year - base production of Pilgangoora mine |
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| 92,857 | tonnes LCE - base production of Pilgangoora mine |
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| 7% | percentage of world Li supply by PLS (DH at * 30/1/24 see *3) |
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| 1,326,531 | world Li supply as LCE (for 2023 based on DH statement see *3) |
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| year | car sales mill | Li required for cars as LCE tonnes | tonnes of spod required for cars | Li for cars pilgangoora size equiv | world LCE demand | worldLCE Demand for Evs | worldLCE Demand for other | worldLCE supply | worldLCE Demand |
| 2020 | 3.3 | 165,000 | 1,155,000 | 1.7 | 292,000 | 113,000 | 179,000 | | |
| 2021 | 6.6 | 330,000 | 2,310,000 | 3.4 | | | | | |
| 2022 | 10.5 | 525,000 | 3,675,000 | 5.4 | | | | 720,000 | 750,000 |
| 2023 | 13.8 | 690,000 | 4,830,000 | 7.1 | 1,326,531 | | | 1,022,185 | |
| 2024 | 17.5 | 874,782 | 6,123,474 | 9.0 | | | | | |
| 2025 | 21.7 | 1,082,805 | 7,579,636 | 11.1 | 1,140,000 | 787,000 | 353,000 | | |
| 2026 | 26.2 | 1,311,602 | 9,181,213 | 13.5 | | | | | |
| 2027 | 31.1 | 1,555,298 | 10,887,083 | 16.0 | | | | | |
| 2028 | 36.1 | 1,806,945 | 12,648,613 | 18.6 | | | | | |
| 2029 | 41.2 | 2,061,905 | 14,433,332 | 21.2 | | | | | |
| 2030 | 46.3 | 2,313,045 | 16,191,312 | 23.8 | 2,500,000 | 2,084,000 | 416,000 | 1,640,000 | 3,060,000 |
| 2031 | 51.0 | 2,551,288 | 17,859,017 | 26.3 | | | | | |
| 2032 | 55.4 | 2,767,637 | 19,373,461 | 28.5 | | | | | |
| 2033 | 59.1 | 2,955,283 | 20,686,982 | 30.4 | | | | | |
Monthly battery cathode production by type in China. Source: SMM, Baiinfo, Morgan Stanley Research
(20min delay)
