Whenever I get too desperate of the current prices I revisit my...

Whenever I get too desperate of the current prices I revisit my investment reasoning for Lithium.

Today:  VOLUME 1. - General demand for Lithium

Thesis: Exponential growth in Lithium demand due to its use in EV batteries. (Extra demand possible due to battery use in energy storage)

Reality check on demand:
Are EV sales growing? (Initial assumption 40%YoY growth implying a doubling of sales every two years)

Total EV sales worldwide 2017:  1.2M
Total EV sales worldwide 2018: likely around 2.0 M (>60% YoY growth)

China and US markets on track for 70-80% YoY growth. In several months even sustaining that growth in overall shrinking car market.

Europe YoY EV sales growth likely only <20% due to specific European topics. I am still bullish about 2019 with Tesla and several volume models arriving to the market and German carmakers finally pushing towards EV.

Additional demand growth factors:

1. Commercial transport (Trucks, buses, ferries, delivery Vans) are seeing a push towards electrification.
2. Sales growth is mainly towards pure BEV and not to hybrids. That results in a larger average battery size.
3. Average battery size on pure EV is increasing too.

Conclusion: Demand due to EV sales exceeds my initial optimistic assumption by far.

On the energy storage side it is harder to get good numbers. I would appreciate any help to get better data input. Anecdotal evidence from solar installers and some light house projects (Tesla in AUS and Tesla gas peaker replacement in California) indicate a very fast growing demand on that front.

While it seems clear that Li-Ion is the best battery chemistry for cars, I do not have the same confidence for energy storage. I think Li-Ion is getting a head start in that sector due to the availability of Li-Ion batteries and their falling cost due to the cumulative volume of batteries produced. Long term (past 2025) another battery chemistry might take over a bigger part of the storage market.

My outlook on total demand for the next 10 years is extremely bullish.

Topped up last week @ 18.5 cents