I distinctly remember him calling the temporary spodumene oversupply pretty accurately in a short exchange quite some time back.
I can imagine such an acceptance of the "oversupply myth" would have made him a pariah in these forums. Correct or not.
I was of the opinion that the lithium industry would bottom out in late 2019 but I have recently had to reevaluate that given the performance and rhetoric of ALB.
Throughout 2018 YOY QTR growth in both REV and GP was declining while inventories were climbing suggesting an oversupply situation with a continuation into late 2019 as the inventories peak and both revenues and gross profit went negative.
The issue is that while inventories have continued up both revenue and gross profit seem to have bottomed in Q3 2018. Given this and the more bullish tone of ALB from the latest QTR:
Outlook
Our 2018 performance and execution on our lithium growth projects have positioned Albemarle for anotheryear of growth in 2019. We expect net sales to range between $3.65 billion and $3.85 billion, representing growthof approximately 8% to 14%, with adjusted EBITDA between $1,070 million and $1,140 million, up approximately6% to 13%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share between $6.10 and $6.50, growth of approximately 11% to19%. Our growth will be driven by increased volume in our core lithium business, while our Bromine Specialtiesand Catalysts businesses will be stable. We are not forecasting any significant macroeconomic headwinds andhave not seen any decline in our customer demand forecasts.
It seems increasingly possible that Q3 2018 will be the bottom of the market and this would be confirmed if ALB pull another increase in YOY REV and GR in Q1 2019. Given the weight of Albermarle in the LIT.ETF, this will have a large impact on the entire sector. It is looking increasingly likely then that the re-rate in the lithium sector will occur this half not next.
ALB Inventories.
ALB Revenues.
ALB Gross Profit.
