Following up on the brilliant work by @WowVeryJosh and others, figured I’d lay out the available public facts plus some fair assumptions and predictions.
Historic Dawn View (New Dawn) Resource
The historic Dawn View tantalum resource was reported at 1.04 Mt @ 0.016% Ta₂O₅ (30m depth).
Drill samples were not assayed for lithium, however recent rock chips by Torque and historic accounts have confirmed the presence of spodumene throughout the deposit, as per Minerals Resources Bulletin 22 - Tantalum in Western Australia (p121):
The mineralized massive albite–cleavelandite zone contains quartz, K-feldspar, and greenlithium-rich muscovite. Spodumene crystals up to 1 mlong have been recorded in the Dawn View pit.
The latest drilling program in 2001 led to a measured resource estimate of 1.04 Mt at 0.016% Ta2O5 over a strikelength of 600 m and to a depth of 30 m, and estimated to contain 0.17 Mt of Ta2O5. Indicated and inferred resources in areas adjacent to the main orebody have been estimated at 0.55 Mt at 0.014% Ta2O5, giving a total resource in situ of 1.52 Mt at 0.015% Ta2O5. Potential also exists to extend this resource southwards along strike for about 250 m. In 2003, the company intends to test this possible extension, and also a suite of pegmatites 400 m west of the main deposit at Dawn View (Tantalum Australia NL, 2002b).
Exploration Potential
Drilling completed by Alita Resources in 2018/2019 (see ASX: A40 - 6/06/18 and 10/05/19) defined the ‘Pegmatite 3’ exploration target of 17Mt to 24Mt, grading 1.25% to 1.40% Li2O and 150 to 180ppm Ta2O5, to the west of Bald Hill.
Drillholes LRC0707, LRC0708 and LRCD0842 showed Pegmatite 3 has a width of ~20m, with variable grades, similar to Bald Hill (i.e. likely average 1% Li2O?) – see map. The pegmatite dips to the east, implying it likely outcrops to the west on the New Dawn tenements (see cross section).
There appears to be some additional drilling by Alita on the tenement boundary of New Dawn, however I couldn’t find any information on this.
Recent drilling by Lithco/Liatam (green points) shows they’ve completed a large scale 80x80m drill out of Pegmatite 3 within the mining lease in the last 12 months (current Google imagery).
It’s worth noting the tenement in between the mining lease and New Dawn tenements is pending (in the name of Liatam Mining), so no drilling has been completed here.
Blue Collars – historic Dawn View drilling, Green Collars – 2022-23 Lithco/Liatam drilling, Pink Points – Undrilled drill pads, Yellow dashed line – Alita Pegmatite 3 exploration target
Section A-B showing likely extension of confirmed ‘Pegmatite 3’ intercepts to New Dawn pegmatites
New Dawn Resource Potential
A quick and nasty wireframe of the pegmatites from historic drilling gives a tonnage (using density of 2.65) of ~3.22Mt for the existing pegmatite (red wireframe). It seems that roughly half of this was above cut-off for the historic tantalum resource of 1.52Mt.
Extrapolating the current pegmatites up to the tenement boundary, there’s reasonably another~9.12Mtof pegmatite(orange wireframe), giving a total potential tonnage of ~12.35Mt.
Tonnage
Column 1
Column 2
0
Tonnage
1
Current New Dawn Resource
3.22Mt
2
Potential New Dawn Resource
9.12Mt
3
Total
12.35Mt
Red = Current resource, Orange = Potential resource
The grade is obviously unknown, however would be fair to assume it’d be similar to Bald Hill at 1% Li2O.
There’s still potential to grow the resource with pegmatites noted on the western mining lease, potential for stacked, deeper pegmatites, and extensions to the north.
Valuation
New Dawn Resource (assumed) –12.35Mt @ 1% Li2O
Mineable Portion – 8Mt @ 1% Li2O
Tonne of 6% Spodumene: 1,333,333t
Recovery of 75% = 1,000,000t of saleable spod.
Cost to mine/process = A$1000
Sale price per tonne = $4,500 (using $3,000 US at .65 FX)
Margin = A$3,500
Net proceeds = $3,500,000,000
Given the Bald Hill processing plant is literally next door, it would make sense that New Dawn ore is processed there one way or another.
Presuming Mineral Resources purchases Bald Hill, it would make sense that they’d also take out Torque and should attact relative valuation premium compared to peers.
Market Cap Prediction
With WC8 going bonkers, multi hundreds dollar MC’s are achievable, even with no resource.
Torque has some serious advantages which should accelerate share price discovery such as Bald Hill doesn’t have a huge mine life when compared to other deposits, so it’s safe to assume they’ll need additional ore in the next few years… and considering all the deals we see for large amounts of money these days on lithium projects/companies, this space is super hot and liquid if commercial/strategic value is present.
Whilst the above is my take on potential, there’s a real chance of some serious share price escalation here due to the premium of having a near starved plant ready for potentially 12Mt of super easy and shallow feed potential which during its sale price process could generate multi billions in cash profit through extending a mine life significantly….
A Billion dollar operation/transaction spread over 150m shares on issue should generate multi dollar share price reward(s) over the medium/long term… current SP 33.5c… 40m MC
Obviously a few runs to score to get to that but Barrier to Entry is super low, reward potential is outstanding and MC is cheap relative to potential, which is real….
For me????
Risk/Reward ON.
Boy.
TOR Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)