Hi Kalintihi. I tend to separate the Lithium hard rock players into groups.
Those around Pilangoora.
Obviously here the stand outs are AJM and PLS. AJM have the best backing I could ever imagine in Lionergy and their "associates". PLS feels ready to run but have no doubt lost some confidence of the market. That will change imo and both AJM and PLS feel like very safe bets going forward. I'm getting very bullish on PLS.
MCT and DKO are the small players and I'm in both. Whether it's too late or not depends how much Spodumene they have and we don't know that yet. My opinion on these kind of stocks is go in small if you do and they may be they are worth a punt, and get more on real results. I do like MCT management a lot.
Those outside WA
These are largely pretenders imo. They are putting out announcements with high levels of lithium but I don't see the word Spodumene in there. Without Spodumene I will not touch any Lithium stock but that's just me. Whenever I see reference to LIT technology I run a mile. From what I have seen Broken Hill, and the N.T players have mostly mica. If we are to be brutally honest I consider mica to be currently worthless. If you were to mine mica today there is no commercially viable way to extract the Lithium I know of. So investors are expected to invest based upon what? An assumption that a model from a lab can be made commercial and can compete commercially in a few years times. I expect these mica stocks to sink as more and more people understand this. Even were it to become viable, why would anyone mine mica in Australia when it can come from Africa? Why would the Chinese not copy the technology when no-one can prove how it was converted in a finished battery. Mica, makes zero sense to me and I think some of those big gainers are in for a rude awakening.
Those in Africa
Mostly mica and not much Spodumene I can find so zero interest. I did follow LTR hoping for Spodumene. It turned out to be mica (what I considered a BAD result) and the price gained about 50% where I sold. Now it's low again and I think this will be story for mica's as the market considers all the ramifications of commercializing it in a market likely to be largely controlled by China.
Those in Quebec
Now these are interesting as they do have Spodumene and lots of it. The problem is that the pegmatites can be quite a distance apart and we're not taking just driving equipment across Pilangoora. The terrain in tough. The weather is tough and strip ratios can be poor and so I have my doubts. I have a little of ADV but doubt I will hold long term unless they get an amazing resource. People can research AB Energy, a company that had a working mine back in 2014 and went into receivership. It's still a brand new 100 million plus mine sitting dormant although talk of it starting again. The fact it has taken 2 years to revive interest tells me there are problems in Quebec.
Vanadium
I like Vanadium for a very early play. TNG is the biggest and probably the safest but I like the model of AVL. I think TNG will be successful but could be terribly diluted as these big projects can be. Not a place for me. AVL have recognized it's early for Vanadium and chosen to sell and promote Vanadium as they progress the mine. "If" successful they may just hit that sweet spot I look for. The tech for Lithium/Vanadium batteries is also very interesting and could be something from left field. High risk compared to Pilangoora but maybe big returns one day.
My Conclusion
This is absolutely all in my opinion only. I could be wrong on every count and no doubt those watching their Lithium mica shares rise will say I am. To me the only game in town is Pilangoora. The prices we see will settle as the emotion settles. When it does the real players will rise and the pretenders will fall. Until the emotion does settle, well anything is possible. A total dud that mentions Tesla and extraction technology that doesn't exist yet can rocket up so I do not need anyone to say I picked wrong. You could sell your mica shares in this market and regret it. As someone who puts a lot of time into FA I just think the real business wins in the end.
ASX Price at posting:
$42.75 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
