An eventful day
So after plenty of reading, I see a massive overreaction similar to the Macquarie report fiasco.
1) SQM themselves state we are not going to go into oversupply.
2) Joe Lowry says no oversupply coming any time soon.
3) UBS says we are not going to go into oversupply.
A look at UBS predictions illustrates a pattern I see so often - underestimation of demand (often also an overestimation of supply which Roskill was guilty off in the past btw...yet suddenly their word is gospel?).
UBS once predicted 9% EV by 2025.
Then in 2017, they upgraded to 14% EV by 2025 due to EV costs coming down quicker than anticipated (a common theme).
http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf
The just recently, they upgrade to 16.5% EV, again due to unexpected acceleration in sales.
https://thewest.com.au/business/aut...-lithium-miners-in-drivers-seat-ng-b88683067z
The 14% figure only has 20% PHEVs losing out to fully electric BEVs and thus just this figure pushes us over the 775Kt LCE of output even if SQM's manages to pull off its promised expansion.
'UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw says the SQM deal will not affect lithium supply for at least four or five years given the time required to build the expansions. When SQM's expansion eventually does hit, Mr Shaw says demand should be surging sufficiently to ensure a shortage of lithium.'
I see lithium stocks bouncing back pretty soon.