Lithium, page-2003

Well think about it logically.

Let's start with leaving the LHS exactly as it is and ignore the fact that the RHS doesn't include 2016. For them to have not changed their outlook that would mean the incremental increase for demand in 2026 under the base case was 681kt of LCE. Assuming even a 50/50 split of Brine to Spod that would mean we needed 2.5Mt of spodumene to be produced globally in 2026 to fill that gap.

If we look at the high case incremental increase for demand in 2026 would be 1.2Mt of LCE! Again assuming 50% spod that would be 4.8Mt of spodumene. That is huge.

Obviously we know that isn't how that chart works and the extra demand will be spread throughout the 9 years but the above demonstrates they have unequivocally moved their targets.

LCE market in 2016 was something like 160Kt. So in the LHS chart their high case CAGR was 11.89% and their base case CAGR was 8.30%

Now on the RHS graph they tell us their base case growth is 26% and high case CAGR is 33%. As such the concept that they have tripled their demand forecast in the space of 12 months is pretty accurate even if we have moved forward one year. Absolute numbers change but the CAGR shouldn't vary that much as a result of that.