Re: your Q on potential settlement timelines @Nextonesmine - Couldn't directly reply:
Honestly I thought we'd have been there by now, which raises some concerns with me about just how worried the DRC authorities are by the ICSID case, and just how strong the Chinese carrot/stick pressure game is.
ICSID was posited by management as the reason that 'traction' was gained towards signing of the much-vaunted MoU that was meant to provide a pathway to our Mining Licence. That was stalled when it was reviewed by the MoM's legal team I believe, and I doubt they would have done that off their own bat. Well, that stalling brought it up to the election period and the extended gap in which a new government was to be formed, pushing it back again further. Seems like a plan to me rather than happenstance.
As such, though AVZ management reported that they had strong hopes for the MoU, my belief is that it was a smokescreen used by the DRC authorities to continue with their delay program, potentially at the behest of their Chinese backers, who are playing a waiting game partially whilst our funds run dry and as they continue to progress their development of the northern tenement area. I dont believe that the DRC authorities ever intended to sign that document.
So I guess we need to ask ourselves what are the next potential catalysts that could prompt actual realistic discussions towards a negotiated settlement:
- Return of a new government, with some detractors removed - Return of ICC jurisdiction case on Zijin/JC, with a positive outcome for AVZ - AVZ confirming 20m in funding from Locke - DRC implementation of ICSID interim orders holding up work on the northern tenement (...though unlikely IMO)
So I think that should at least should the first three elements come to pass around the same time, then there will be an important window of opportunity for us to press forward with negotiations. In this scenario the positive outcome from the Zijin case would foreshadow what is to follow on the legal cases should they progress, with the fund injection from Locke highlighting that we have the cash to progress those cases if required, and the formation of new government hopefully putting some new faces forward with the ability to negotiate and make decisions.
How FTs position changes without the prospect of a third term may be an important factor, vis-a-vis his relations with the West and China, which is a bit of a wildcard. But my view is that AVZ management would need to seize the moment in this case, even if that requires making some concessions. The obvious one for me is the North, which I believe to be all but lost in any case (though of course permitting the Chinese development of that area does represent a significant risk for the South). Anyway, this scenario could forseeably see a negotiated settlement come to pass this year.
However if that window passes without success, then perhaps we might need movement on the other key catalysts, namely:
- Conclusion of Dathomir case (likely late 2024) - Conclusion of Cominiere case (likely 2025)
in this scenario there would be more legal clarity and a record of judgements, and should they go in our favor as expected, then this could pave the way for the government to back a result in which they could mollify China to a degree by saying hey we are just following the decisions of the International courts. Especially if they could still be sated to a degree by some concessions. In this case ICSID would have also further progressed, and DRC would likely would be seeing the writing on the wall, so pressure would be building to make a settlement before an award is reached. In this scenario, i could see a second significant window of opportunity towards a negotiated outcome developing in 2025.
Otherwise we’re buggered. If we go the distance at ICSID for instance, i dont see any real likelihood of us ending with a positive outcome beyond a cash reward we'd probably never get out hands on. And there could well be developments in the interim that come out of left field that undermine the settlement possibilities, but we'll just have to wait and see whilst the Chinese progress their plans towards developing the north (and without some deal being reached, their plans to strangle and strand the south, blocking its development).
all speculation obviously, but my current feeling is that on the balance of probability, we may just see a negotiated outcome later this year should everything go our way re: a few key catalysts. That's my hope anyway, and I dont believe that all is lost at this point.
I do think we'll get delisted first though this year. Which our detractors would no doubt use to undermine our position in DRC, probably with a reasonable amount of success.
(20min delay)