PET 0.00% 2.5¢ phoslock environmental technologies limited

LiveWire YouTube Link, page-76

  1. 3,387 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 4561
    @Adm1 raises a good point.

    On a valuation perspective, the company is ridiculously overvalued on current numbers and on CY2019 forecasted numbers.

    Revenue forecasted for FY2019 remains in the range of $27-$30m, up ~ 55% on CY2018. With a market cap of $770m that places PET on an extraordinary multiple of 28x revenue using CY2019 estimates.

    PET have however made the following statement: "Given the rapid growth in the size and scope of projects, predominantly in China, but also internationally, we are not yet ready to forecast sales levels for 2020 and beyond. It is likely we will do so in coming months".

    To justify the current share price, I would want to see CY2020 revenue (PET report their FY as a CY) of $60m or more. Even then, that would place PET on a forward PSR of 12.8x.

    The question becomes, will PET meet not only the CY2019 guidance but also meet revenue of $60m or more in CY20, because that is what is already factored into the current share price.

    If the answer to this question is yes, and you expect revenue in CY20 to be perhaps more in the order of $60-$100m, then perhaps yes, this company is indeed looking like a very strong buy. But, we need to remember we are taking about moments in time that are ~12 months from now.

    T.E.P

 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add PET (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.