“first step towards LKE becoming 90,000 to 100,000 LCE tonnes...

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DG4444

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18/04/24

06:57

Post #: 73397765
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Originally posted by Suw: ↑

Wish you a very happy New Year. 2022 will be a cracking year, transformational for LKE and it’s shareholders.
Kachi NPV for 25,500 tonnes is AUD $2.1B. By mid 2022, we will have a clear understanding on expansion of Kachi (51,000 tonnes) and NPV will be atleast AUD $4.2B. All these are at Lithium Carbonate price of USD $15,500 and we all know current spot price is more than USD $40,000 for battery quality and 99.97% purity should fetch even more. Yes, long term contract price will not be USD $40,000 but we could expect atleast USD $20,000 (less than half of current spot price) in DFS NPV calculation. This should give 25,500t annual production, NPV close to AUD $3B and 51,000t expansion, NPV close to AUD $6B (approximately)

I expect the following announcements and impact on LKE share price in 2022.

Q1
Kachi demo plant progress and completion (SP impact 15c to 20c)
First Tier-1 offtake partner (SP impact 25c to 30c)
Kachi expansion drilling progress (SP impact 5c to 10c)

Target SP end of Q1: $1.45 to $1.60

Q2

Cauchari, Oraloz & Pesos drilling progress and resource (SP impact 20c to 30c)
NOVONIX final results (SP impact 5c to 10c)
Release of DFS and ESIA with revised lithium price (SP impact 20c to 30c)
Confirmation of Kachi expansion to 51,000 tonnes per year (SP impact 20c to 30c)

Target SP end of Q2: $2.10 to $2.60

Q3
Confirmation of construction finance (SP impact 10c to 15c)
New BOD appointment with an offtake partner or JV partner (SP impact 5c to 10c)
Second Tier-1 offtake partner (SP impact 20c to 25c)
Dual US listing announcement (SP impact 10c to 15c)

Target SP end of Q3: $2.55 to $3.25

Q4
Cauchari, Oraloz & Pesos development & and DLE partner (SP impact 20c to 25c)

Target SP end of Q4: $2.75 to $3.50

LKE SP Prediction for 2022
End of Q2 2022 expected (conservative) LKE SP: $2
End of Q4 2022 expected (conservative) LKE SP: $3

IMO, Lithium price will continue to increase in 2022, LKE will de-risk further, LKE will accelerate other projects and LKE SP will start to factor in small part of Cauchari, Oraloz and/or Pesos value.

2022 activities would be the first step towards LKE becoming 90,000 to 100,000 LCE tonnes per annum producer &Top-5 World Lithium Producers by 2028/30

DYOR. All the very best Lakers

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“first step towards LKE becoming 90,000 to 100,000 LCE tonnes per annum producer &Top-5 World Lithium Producers by 2028/30”

Upcoming catalysts for share price shrinkage:

Announcement of results of SPP Offer
Did anyone in retail subscribe?
Post #:73154192

Quarterly cash flow report for quarter ending 31 March 2024.
Has management achieved the espoused 40% cost cuts in quarter ending 31 March 2024 as compared to the quarter ending 31 December 2023?
04/03/2024 Update on cost reduction actions, strategic partner process and project timeline

Will they have the runway required to complete the Q4/24Strategic Partnering Process?
12/03/2024 Investor presentation

DYOR
Last edited by DG4444: 18/04/24

LKE Price at posting: 5.7¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
4 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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