This could the reason why Lithium market crash today.
In the face of crazy lithium prices, BYD took action.
Recently, The Paper exclusively learned from sources that BYD has found 6 lithium mines in Africa, and all of them have reached acquisition intentions.
Sources told The Paper that according to BYD's internal calculations, among the six lithium mines, the amount of ore with a grade of 2.5% lithium oxide has reached more than 25 million tons, which can be converted to 1 million tons of lithium carbonate.At the same time, he also revealed, "In terms of cost, the loading price of lithium carbonate per ton is definitely below 200,000 yuan."
Production capacity will cover more than 20 million pure electric models
According to the research report of Soochow Securities, the average usage of lithium carbonate per Gwh (1 million kWh) of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries is about 600 tons.Based on the current mainstream pure electric vehicle battery capacity of 60 degrees, the lithium carbonate required for a pure electric vehicle is about 36kg.
In other words, if the 25 million tons of ore are fully mined, it can meet the power battery needs of 27.78 million 60-degree pure electric vehicles.If the hybrid vehicles with a battery capacity of more than ten degrees are included, the 25 million tons of ore will at least double the production capacity.
BYD's sales target in 2022 is 1.5 million units. If calculated based on this, the lithium ore won means that BYD will no longer have to "skill a woman to cook without rice" in the next ten years.
From an industry perspective, the China Automobile Association predicts that China's new energy vehicle sales will be 5 million in 2022. A rough estimate is that these lithium ore can also cover the production capacity demand for at least several years.
It is worth noting that, according to the above-mentioned sources, several of the six lithium mines will be shipped next month, and it is expected that these lithiums can be loaded into BYD blade batteries in the third quarter of this year.
In fact, as early as 2010, BYD invested in Zabuye Salt Lake, the largest salt lake lithium mine in China. For a long time, BYD has been accelerating the layout of upstream lithium resources.Shengxin Lithium Energy announced on March 22 that it intends to introduce BYD as a strategic investor. At present, the fixed increase project has been accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission; The pilot test of lithium extraction technology will be carried out. After the effect of the pilot test is verified, the two parties will negotiate and start the project.
However, judging from the existing public information, it is the first time that BYD plans to include 1 million tons of lithium carbonate in the bag so generously.
Generous shot is expected to cool lithium prices
An industry insider told The Paper that the surge in lithium prices in the past year can be explained by far more than the logic of supply and demand. There is a lot of speculation and hype behind it.The fact that car companies have made such a big move at this node is not only a consideration of their own strategic layout, but also to convey a rational voice to the upstream on behalf of the industry.
At the end of 2020, the price of lithium carbonate was about 50,000 yuan/ton, and with the surge in sales of new energy vehicles in 2021, lithium carbonate once exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton in March this year.Reflected in the cost of the vehicle's power battery is an increase of one or two thousand yuan.
Li Bin, chairman of Weilai Automobile, previously stated in the earnings conference call that the price increase of lithium carbonate is more of a speculative factor; and Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, bluntly stated in the investor conference call that the skyrocketing lithium price is "a bit like speculation." .
It can be said that both car companies and battery companies have been "suffering lithium prices for a long time."
It cannot be ignored that the huge cost pressure of enterprises is eventually transmitted to the consumer side.Since 2022, China's new energy vehicle market has experienced three more obvious price increases, and in the price increase announcement, car companies without exception have expressed their helplessness to bear the rise in raw materials.Many experts worry that the frequent rise in prices will hurt the new energy vehicle market that has just entered the outbreak period, and eventually lithium miners will not be spared.
With the global sales of new energy vehicles hitting new highs, the status of lithium as a strategic resource has become increasingly prominent.It is understood that more and more car companies have begun to control lithium resources, including acquiring lithium mines, seeking strategic partners, locking in supply by signing long-term agreements, and deploying lithium battery recycling systems.
"On the one hand, the new exploration volume and recoverable reserves will definitely continue to increase. In fact, lithium resources are very abundant in nature and are completely sufficient. On the other hand, the tide of power battery retirement is also coming, coupled with battery recycling technology It is relatively mature, and in the near future, the stock of lithium will be able to meet a large part of the demand. The supply of lithium mines will fill the increment." The above-mentioned industry insiders analyzed, "The dependence on lithium mines will be greatly reduced in the future. The situation of 'astronomical lithium' is even less likely to exist for a long time, the tide will recede soon, and there will be chicken feathers waiting for these hoarders."
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