LKE towards TOP-5, page-7368

The other way to think is that that SP decrease before the options expiry was a bit artificial, and in a few days, the selling pressure caused by people selling LKE shares to finance the options exercise, will cease.

Of course, reality is always more complex than that, there are other things in play, e.g.:

1. Markets in general have fallen a lot in the past few months, so LKE SP must have been influenced by that, as well.

2. There are more LKE shares shorted now than were in October, please see the chart below, which is delayed by 4 trading days.
In October, before the options expiry, the peak rate of LKE shares shorted was about 0.31%, now it is hovering around 3-4%.
This is a double edged sword though, taking shorting positions meant more selling pressure in the past weeks/months, but should the price increase, many shorters might need to close their position, which means buying LKE shares.
In October the shorting rate went down quickly to 0.00% after the options expiry date. Such big change would mean 30-40 million extra shares bought.

3. An obvious difference is that now LKE is entering ASX 200, which will bring a lot of institutional buyers. We didn't have that in October. These buyers will need to buy LKE shares before 20th June, 2022.

4. And of course, as you alluded as well, the real substance would be the news flow, @Suw posted a good summary of what are the possible announcements that are due in the following weeks / months. I expect a much more dense news flow in the coming weeks / months than what we had last October, November.