LM100-J Firefighter, page-2

Lockheed aren't going to sell a lot of LM-100J. They only built 100-odd of the original L-100 and I can't see them selling hundreds of the new bird. So we're talking <500 flaps to produce here. I've spent a good chunk of my career working with the C-130 and I can say that it's a great aircraft, but we're heading towards sunset here for this platform. The old document (2014) linked below shows the production backlog and operators of the C-130J. If you compare against Wikipedia there are only a handful of new foreign operators (i.e. non-US) that aren't on that list.

https://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2014/07/asd_07_16_2014_crs8.pdf

The companies that run the firefighting operations are tight, so aren't going to go and buy a new plane (which I think runs around US$65m) to flog it to death fighting fires. They fly the cheap stuff, like the BAE-146 and its derivatives which can be picked up for under a million and older 737's and convert them instead. What Lockheed is proposing with the full 360 degree synthetic view is pretty cool, but a cockpit upgrade to an older jet with an enhanced vision system would get you 90% of that offering for a fraction of the price.

For QHL, the Herc contract is probably one of its weakest long term.