A couple of things about our "elephant"
LMB's Off Take is binding
SYR has two NON BINDING Off Takes - the one with Chinalco has been extended beyond the initial time frame - tests are still ongoing. Just as you have said "but I hope it is binding" in relation to LMB's OT, a similar statement has been made re SYR's OT here - http://az-china.com/blackchinablog/?tag=syrah-resources Whether they are right/wrong remains to be seen
IF SYR secures a BINDING contract with Chinalco, that volume will be for a totally new-end market - it will not force current graphite suppliers out of the market. In fact, it will open up markets for other suppliers with other anode manufacturers That's been well discussed by graphite experts such as Simon Moores. Peter Epstein echoed his comments recently with this....
"Syrah’s giant Mozambique deposit was considered by many pundits to be a daunting overhang, i.e. so big it would flood the market. Not only is China’s Chinalco proposing to take upwards of 100k tonnes of Syrah’s future output – that flake graphite is headed for a massive new end-market… aluminum anodes. - See more at: http://investorintel.com/graphite-g...-strong-graphite-market/#sthash.jNkViRKX.dpuf"
PURITY is important. SYR's graphite projects also include vanadium - great in one way, not so great in another if they want to supply the high tech market, including Li ion batteries, that demands a HIGH PURITY product . Vanadium is considered a "contaminant" in graphite for this market, as are other minerals. Yes, we all know SYR has said the vanadium can be easily removed with chemical leaching, but that adds to the cost and the question still remains can they remove ALL - tests are still on-going. It's one thing to do a few bench top tests, it's another to prove up consistently.
In regard to the above, Jon Hwkawy"s article linked is a good read - here's an extract....."The same company that told me it took them months to hit the required specification on their high-purity product and 13 months to do it consistently also told me that it took them ANOTHER year before they managed to understand how to control their contaminant profile and consistently produce what amounted to EXACTLY the same output, day in and day out. That learning curve included evaluating dozens of suppliers, and establishing which ones could provide product that didn’t alter the profile of the final product". - See more at: http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/last-decimal-places-matter-think/#sthash.Ij23KfiB.dpuf
As others have mentioned - all graphite deposits are different. One size does not fit all. That's why no one company will dominate - they will not be able to supply all markets.
LMB Chart, page-44
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