I agree Its nice to speculate and dream but, what should the value be based on 'facts'
The contract signed is for 50,000 tonnes per annum for 21 years (it is a contract not just an MOU)
The Production cost US $ 480 per tonne based on 21 years (life of mine) - this is V accurate
The floor price agreed in the COA is US $ 2,000
The actual price LMB receive from Hengda is mark to market (spot price - not floor price)
The Current Spot price of LMB's grade of graphite is about US $ 7,500
The Profit will be minimum floor price - production cost PMT = US $ 75,000,000 per annum for 21 years (life of mine)
Chuck in a PE of 4-5 and you get a target price of US $ 4-5
The valuation of US $ 4-5 does not take into account any upside from:
aa) A Greater than 50,000 tonnes per annum exports (LMB can export about 85,000 per annum)
bb) The upside in the spot price of graphite - check out current rise and rise in demand for Batteries for EV
cc) What is about to be announced?
Conclusion
LMB share price could easily end up much much higher than US $ 4-5 within 2014 and certainly 2015/2016
LMB project is a relatively simple/easy build, relatively low capital cost project
Revenue should be flowing in well before end of 2015.
Schenky
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