IBG 50.0% 0.3¢ ironbark zinc ltd

I think that the important thing here is that the medium to long...

  1. DSM
    18 Posts.
    I think that the important thing here is that the medium to long term fundamentals for zinc are looking better than most other metals right now IMO. Obviously the price is still subject to slowing economic growth (especially considering it is primarily used for galvanizing steel), however with the number of pending mine closures (Century, Brunswick, Lisheen, Scorpion etc) it is hard to see supply keeping up with demand over the next few years. This seems to be the consensus amongst most banks, mining houses and investment firms.

    Obviously it is hard to determine how much is stockpiled in China but even they don't have an infinite supply. Arguably they do have the capacity to ramp up production at existing operations and to bring online old and undeveloped resources. Quantifying this is also very difficult. The other key thing to remember here is that China is moving towards cleaning up the country and are far less accepting of dirty two bit operations that mine with no regard to the environment. This in itself may be an additional hurdle for many miners over there.

    Besides Citronen there aren't a lot of other high tonnage zinc deposits out there. While Dugald River (MMG) will probably go into production there are some challenges there which may push up CAPEX and the development time line. Kipushi (Ivanhoe) is an interesting deposit in the DRC that has amazing grades but is in a challenging jurisdiction and needs a partner to fund it. Outside of those and a few others there isn't a lot out there. IMO. On the ASX Energia (EMX) have an interesting deposit but it is relatively low tonnage and has a way to go. The likes of PLD and some other asx listed Zn explorers have some serious challenges ahead of them IMO. There is also the potential for companies to expand existing operations in Canada, India and Peru etc, although I'm not sure how much additional Zn this will add to the market and at what cost.

    Citronen has low(ish) grades and is logistically challenged because of its remoteness but IMO it is still by far one of the best undeveloped zinc projects out there. There is a reason Glencore and Nyrstar are in there. Plus having two cornerstone investors in IBG that are in competition with one another probably isn't a bad thing. There are definitely worse resource stocks to have your money in!

    I do hold IBG and all of the above is just my opinion. DYOR!
 
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