Great post and shows great insight into the area. I cant help speculating who you might be, lol that's the fun of anonymity and the mystery of it all.
The Isa line as you know is set up to be owned by the POTL. (I doubt this will happen). The line and POTL are then being set up for sale. Prior to this there will be a fair amount fo time trying to fix (patch) some of it to make the line appear more attractive.
Bottom line is the line is a heavy maintenance line laid on black sands.
The current max capacity of the line is around 10 - 12 MT per annum (from memory). Current runnings on the line is already around the 7 to 8 MTPA. This of course creates its own challenges for a single mine 10 MTPA export.
This might be possible with innovative signalling. The current train control train order system requires 30 kph running through each passing loop which of course creates a big issue wrt throughput.
Clearly then the single most important upgrade is to install remote controlled points machines (1:12) grade.
No small cost but definitely do-able.
Doing this will allow a through running of main line trains to the port of at least 60 kph.
A calculation then of the future capacity under this scenario may bring the max capacity up to say 16 to 20 MTPA.
Concurrent with this as you rightly say, with the smelter gone at the Isa, the line in fact will require even greater capacity as the volume now has to go the coast.
A bit of a mess and the smelter at the Isa is a key factor.
Could well be we will be trucking and railing to achieve 10 MTPA
all the best
CDU Price at posting:
$1.84 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
