Greetings Joe, I've just returned from a few days away, seems...

Greetings Joe, I've just returned from a few days away, seems the IBG forum has become a little more chaotic in my absence.

IMO the zinc bull run is over for now. We may well see another surge in Zinc prices in the current months, but I have divested myself this week of zinc holdings. IBG's future is unknown, but there remains as much upside as downside, and long term holder might well be rewarded for their patience if and when a mining licence is granted and financing secured. Management seems diligent and committed to the cause, and outlook may be bright.

In the interim there will always be money to be made trading commodity stocks on the ASX regardless of their long term future or fundamentals. One thing the recent zinc run (and decline) shows is to never ever listen to commodity analysts or watch the news too closely. By all means read their writings, but beware investing upon any recommendations they make. Especially beware analysts linked in any way to brokerage firms.

Truly investigative commodity analysis is the exception rather than the norm. Most analysts are lazy and work 5 day a week 9 to 5 jobs looking to attach tid bits to previous analyst reports on a commodity to appease their employers, and get safely home to their families. Most are over paid and if given a few wines over dinner will admit they know little about hat they publish. One or two Zinc analysts publish opinion, and this quickly becomes 20, and the fever pitch can be read on the internet by eager investors.

Internet forums should also be avoided for investment advice, perhaps only an an occasional entry to read the tea leaves on retail investor sentiment, but then not a good gauge anyway.

Much investor skepticism exists here regarding charts, trend line analysis and horizontal support/resistance interpretation. But in reality thats what most successful traders use. They analyse horizontal lines of support and resistance/trendlines of less than 45 degrees, look for volume signals, wait for confirmation, and stick to their trading plan. Its an age old formula, takes hours of chart watching, but works profitably for all markets. Its easy to educate yourself on this, but most people won't bother to.

Zinc? Well... you need to add volume to these charts, but all isn't lost


Theres a clear baseline of supply. If it dips down to that trend line again and tests supply with confirmation, then you may well make 40-50% on your money, as I did recently . Watch as the news and analysis re zinc suddenly becomes bullish again if it dips and finds support at the support line.

Where's resistance supply? I have no idea:


And by the time I need to worry about it the chart will look different anyway. But volume is the key. Listen to the "news " become bearish again( as it recently has) as price hits this resistance level in future.

As for IBG. All is not lost. For now, on Daily look for tests of supply at 9cents, 9.5 cents. Volume will be the key . VSA within 25% of trend lines is powerful and profitable. Watch an analyse intently if it drops below 10 cents. Could be lots to be made.


Weekly same deal.


I might be back in IBG soon, and long term holders could well be rewarded handsomely, but we all have different trading systems. Some have no system . Books I recommend are Tom Williams , Weis and Whykoff for VSA, and Weinstein for trend lines and his 150 days MA is also fair advice for long tremors.

Joe: DMP doing well hey

I won't be posting as much in future. Take care all.