lnc vs mee vs cxy

Some thoughts on this comparison of UCG hopefuls. Also posted under MEE:-

MEE:
* oxygen fired with moveable wells = better quality syngas (no N2) and potential lower cost of recovery from coal seam and better controlability
* staged project - prove up UCG module with trial burn, build 20MW GT plant and then scale-up to >100 MW CCGT plant
* NPV for UCG trial burn is negative and 20MW GT plant has zero NPV. So potentially long wait for a certain NPV to be realised.
* syngas more suitable for CO2 capture than that produced by LNC and CXY = so good technical story on having low CO2 emmision power from coal and potentially cheaply

CXY:
* traditional UCG technology = low syngas quality with N2 and vertical wells with reverse conbustion linking. More proven methods, but not technically as advanced - arguably a safer choice
* focus on power project = Kingaroy first stage 40mw GT. IMO this has poor NPV and is sensitive to electricty prices and financing. Basically should be seen as pilot to prove up method for commercial scale 400 mw plant
* MEE and CXY both propose staged scale-up with little payback until large scale commercial plant is reached. IMO MEE has better technology and long-term application as syngas more suitable to CO2 removal and use for chemical synthesis
* expansion of coal seam methane industry in Qld could affect need for and wholesale cost of electricity = some risk here for CXY and MEE proposed projects as CSM is completely proven

LNC:
* traditional UCG technology = lots of N2 in syngas, but project linked to conversion of syngas into liquid fuels.
* liquid fuels sell at >100 $/bbl making investment returns very high if commercial scale can be achieved
* sexy project = with good PR inside LNC and gov. connections
* project at Chincilla combines two technically difficult processes - UCG and GtL; if it works will be very profitable. Also scale of break-even point is pretty low with liquid fuels so even a plant with low availability will break-even. Hence I think commercial risk is lower; but technical risk higher than power projects. Difficult to quantify risk exactly.
* if first project successful then sky is the limit (similar for MEE and CXY)
* LNC much more advanced than CXY and MEE

So I like LNC, MEE and CXY in that order.