Liquefied natural gas March 16th 2016 mce-anchorDemand The...

Liquefied natural gas


March 16th 2016
mce-anchorDemand

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects global natural gas demand to grow at an annual average of 1.7% in 2016-17, in line with the five-year average growth rate. However, we expect expansion in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to be much stronger at 5.6%, owing to ongoing additions to supply and regasification capacity, including floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). Lower, more competitive prices will also support demand. European imports are likely to remain strong in 2016-17, as the region has the regasification facilities to absorb the additional supply from Australia and the US. New markets for LNG will also make important contributions to LNG consumption, as import capacity expands in the Middle East, eastern Europe and South-east Asia. We also expect Chinese demand to return to growth, largely owing to a reform of wholesale gas prices and efforts to curb coal use.
mce-anchorSupply

Global LNG exports will expand rapidly in 2016-17, owing primarily to the arrival of new supplies from Australia and the US, as well as the expected restart in 2016 of Angola LNG. A number of large Australian projects became operational in 2015, but the main impact on the market will be felt in 2016, when we forecast a 6% year-on-year increase in global LNG supply. We do not expect the current low-price environment to affect export volumes unduly this year, but it could lead to delays and the postponement of projects that are not yet under construction, notably in North America. We expect export growth to remain robust, at 5.3%, in 2017 as additional capacity comes on stream in Australia. (Most of the US projects are only expected to become operational from 2018.)

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