well, I don't know about you, but just about every day we read...

well, I don't know about you, but just about every day we read an article with a conflicting view about whetehr US LNG exports will affect Aust exports.

no doubt, even if there are political considerations about exporting US LNG to non-FTA countries, I would expect a deficit-laden country like USA to chase the export dollars.

what the article below says to me, is that even if the US exports LNG, the effect on Aust exports will not be a catastrophe. An earlier article I posted argued that once the US started exporting LNG, was that the US pricing of gas would rise and the disparity in gas pricing would reduce.

One big factor in US that seems to be massive compared to Aust, is their vast network of infrastructure. Witness the LNG Ltd project in Louisianna (spelling?).

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(publicly available article in Aust today

LNG exports at risk as US stakes claim

by: Matt Chambers
From:The Australian
January 14, 201312:00AM


AUSTRALIA will be the biggest loser among liquefied natural gas exporters if US LNG production takes off in a meaningful way, with more exports displaced than any other nation because of the high costs of building new projects.

The finding, in a Deloitte report commissioned by US LNG proponent Cheniere Energy, comes as global engineering contractor KBR -- a leader in West Australian projects -- says work on US LNG projects is starting to grow as work in Australia dwindles because of surging costs.

If a substantial amount of US LNG is exported to Asia, it could displace the equivalent of one $20 billion project in Australia, the Deloitte report on the global impact of US LNG exports says.

US exports, which are being made economic by a shale gas glut, would also weigh on LNG prices.

"Australian LNG exports to Asia and Russian exports to Europe look particularly vulnerable, given their projected large volume of exports and high cost to markets they serve," the report, entitled Exporting the American Renaissance and released in the US last week, says.

"The largest LNG source that is displaced is Australian LNG."

KBR chief executive William Utt said price hikes in Australia meant opportunities for his company were falling.

"I do have some concerns about how fast are they going to move forward on additional projects in Australia," Mr Utt told investors in the US on Friday.

"Relative to a year ago, it has become much stronger for KBR in North America relative to international. We've seen significant growth on an absolute basis in North America and probably a little bit of diminution in the prospects we have internationally, largely with Africa, Australia."

In Australia, the issue has been high costs, while in Africa the early stage of the industry is making things tough.

"We think the market will continue to move forward and grow for LNG projects in both the US Gulf Coast and British Columbia," Mr Utt said.

KBR worked on Chevron's Gorgon project and Woodside's Pluto project and has submitted a front end engineering and design (FEED) study for the Woodside-led Browse LNG project.

The study and the KBR comments come after US major Chevron -- the biggest spender on Australian LNG -- last month took charge of a Canadian project, known as Kitimat, just after pushing back the timetable for an expansion of the Gorgon LNG project and adding $9bn to the expected cost of the now $52bn foundation project.

The Deloitte study, without making forecasts of US LNG volumes, measures the effects that 47 million tonnes a year of US LNG would have on global trade.

This is less than half the amount of export capacity on the drawing board in the US but is in line with estimates by energy giant Shell and represents exports from just four projects. If those US exports go to Asia, about 19 per cent of the volumes, or 9 million tonnes, would be made up of LNG that otherwise would have come from Australia, Deloitte says.

The 9 million tonnes a year of potentially displaced Australian LNG production would be the same amount as the $US20bn Australia Pacific LNG project at Gladstone being built by Origin Energy and Conoco Phillips is aiming to produce.

If the US exports go to Europe, that number would drop to about 4 million tonnes. The upper estimate is about 10 per cent of Australia's projected LNG exports.

To date, only one US project has been given the right to sell LNG to nations that do not have free trade agreements with the US. There is debate about the number of projects that should be allowed to export to non-FTA countries, which include the leading LNG buyers. Opposition is coming from those who want to keep US domestic gas cheap to spur manufacturing.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/lng-exports-at-risk-as-us-stakes-claim/story-e6frg9df-1226553137492