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LNG glut similar to iron ore

  1. DSD
    15,757 Posts.
    Several commentators have been saying LNG is already about to enter a glut and oversupply will grow substantially. LNG price has already halved in just 12 months. Today we read how a relative minor in energy industry is building an incredible 6 LNG trains equal to the total at Gladstone by the 3 Aussie companies! 1st prod/sales due to start in 6 months. It's insane imo. The glut is already substantial and Gladstone about to flood mkt with massive prod plus NW shelf (Gorgon and Wheatstone) will produce another gas tidalwave in 12-18months. Only way for price is down imo. LNG players seem to have learnt nothing from the IO and coal oversupply situation.

    Extract shows Cheniere intends to be another RIO i.e. keep producing more ESP if LNG price FALLS. They must have a long term horizon and plenty shale reserves.

    'Cheniere, a relatively small producer with a market cap of about $US16 billion, claims in its presentation that it “can profitably sell LNG into key demand centres even in periods of lower market prices” and that “if LNG prices remain at lower levels, we would expect LNG demand to increase, thus signalling the need for more liquefaction projects.'
 
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